Global tightness of silicon metal supply, leading to a shortage of
refined crystalline silicon used for solar cells, has forced cell
manufacturers to look for substitute metals, said industry sources attending
the Photovoltaic Power Generation Expo 2008 held the week beginning Feb 25 in Tokyo.
This is a situation that directly contrasts with warnings by some energy commentators that the photovaltaic industry could face a potential glut of silicon production during 2008, a scenario that could have a negative effect on photovaltaic energy growth.
"The only drawback is non-silicon cells
have limited power output" - Frank Hsu, Gintech
Energy.
David Preische, director of sales at Indium Corp. of America, speaking at
the Expo technology seminar Wednesday, said current solar cell production is
estimated at around 3,000 MW, and cells that use crystalline silicon comprise
the greater share of production. "The major constraint is supply of silicon,"
Preische said.
Marketing officials of silicon solar cells such as Gintech and Kyocera,
and crystalline silicon suppliers such as Mitsubishi Materials, agreed that
silicon supply had tightened this year.
"Those on long-term supply contracts
are safe but spot supply has tightened and spot prices have doubled in
comparison with contract prices," one Japanese marketing official said.
Platts assessments show that spot prices of 98.5% silicon metal in Asia,
used for production of secondary aluminium, have risen by 40% or more in the
last two months, due to a shortage of power in China where the metal is
produced.
Prices of silicon metal of higher grades, used for chemical and
electronics applications, jumped higher.
Almost all silicon solar cell makers are looking into the possibility of
using other metals and technologies.
The Japanese marketing official said:
"Silicon is a ubiquitous material so I do not believe the world will ever be
short of it. We are very scared of another jump in prices ... because solar
cells are new, and in order to spread anything new, we must bring down
prices."
Silicon solar cells generally cost Yen 500-700 ($5-8)/watt. The costs
exclude deployment and peripheral equipment cost.
Frank Hsu, a sales manager for Taiwan-based solar cell maker Gintech
Energy, said his company was focused on silicon solar cells currently but was
looking into using other materials.
"The only drawback is non-silicon cells
have limited power output. If this major technology drawback is solved, we
would like to get into it."
Indium cells save energy
Honda Soltec makes copper-indium-gallium-selenium thin film solar cells
in Japan. The company has ruled out silicon due to its high power consumption.
Tsunehiko Takakuda, assistant manager of the solar cell systems business unit,
said silicon cell production consumes 80 times more power than CIGS.
"Honda has been looking for energy- and resource-saving solutions and
silicon was not the answer," he said, adding that the drawback of limited
power output capacity was solved by enlarging the size of cell modules.
Indium Corp.'s Preische said his company is projecting the solar market
to grow fivefold to 15,000 MW in 2010, and that a strong compound annual
growth of 185% is expected for CIGS cells, compared with 40% annual growth for
silicon cells.
"Supply concerns for indium and gallium are much less...prices rose to
$1,000/kg from $60/kg several years ago because flat panel demand increased,"
Preische said.
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