Solar-industry stocks, however, have taken hits lately.
As the United States and other major industrial countries face the likelihood of an economic slowdown and even the possibility of recession, some analysts have voiced concerns that national support policies for PV and other renewables could be cut back as government revenues shrink.
"It's largely down to supply and demand" - Andrew Perkins, Ernst & Young
New Energy Finance reported that while all clean technology stocks suffered downturns through mid-January, "the solar sector fell 24.8% at the middle of the month, the heaviest sector loss."
Dresdner Kleinwort said January 25 that solar stocks have fallen 38% year to date, underperforming the market by 22%.
Norway's Renewable Energy Corp, a leading PV wafer producer, saw its stock price plummet 44% in late January following what the company called a "mild profit warning."
Despite this spate of bad news, new markets could soon emerge for solar PV installations that could soak up solar industry overproduction in the coming years.
India's national government, for instance, has introduced a tariff for grid-connected solar energy, and the country's state governments are following suit with their own supplements to the scheme.
In addition, the European Commission's plans for generating 20% of the European Union's energy mix from renewables by 2020 seem likely to give a boost to PV development, particularly in such Mediterranean countries as Italy, Greece, Portugal, Spain - and perhaps even Malta, which is expected to increase its renewable energy production from 0% of its energy portfolio to 10% within a dozen years.
Major EU countries like France and even higher latitude countries in the Balkans, the Baltic and Scandinavia could turn to PV to supplement their renewables production.
Worldwide, solar PV and other renewable resources have taken root as public concern mounts about climate change, a new report from Cambridge Energy Research Associates said. CERA noted that PV is still expensive compared with other electricity sources and requires subsidies to compete - but also offer advantages over competitors.
Solar PV is primarily a decentralized source of power generation, according to the CERA report, that "is versatile in terms of applications, ranging from integration in lighting products and building materials to modular power installations that provide power to the grid. Its versatility and falling manufacturing costs make solar PV attractive to the investment community looking for clean energy technologies with near-term market potential."
Further, uncertainties remain about whether all the PV industry's grand designs for expanding capacity will pan out. "It's largely down to supply and demand," Ernst & Young analyst Andrew Perkins told Platts.
"There's a question of how many plants will be up and running. If a lot get built," he said, then the market will confront large amounts of PV supplies.
Perkins also said that even if longtime PV supporters Germany and Spain cut back their tariffs in the coming years, both will retain strong support for solar installations.
Both Germany and Spain have thriving PV sectors that create jobs and generate products for export.
"They wouldn't reduce it to where people wouldn't want to put solar panels on their roofs," he said, adding that PV will become even more attractive as its price approaches grid parity with other power sources in southern Europe.
"It's still a growth industry," Perkins said. "It'll be interesting to see where it goes in the coming years."
Return to top
Next Page: Silicon shortage forces solar cell makers to look for substitutes
|
For the latest news on renewable energy, take a subscription
to Platts Renewable Energy Report. Request a trial or see a sample.
|