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Insight
Insight

December 2008

Main

Publisher's Note Patsy Wurster

Welcome to the fifth annual Global Energy Outlook issue of Platts Insight, a key resource for short- and long-term planning. The 2009 Global Energy Outlook captures timely perspectives on some of the most pressing issues in the world today — security and sustainability — across seven vital sectors. Platts' distinguished editorial staff worldwide gives you a clear understanding of industry trends that will take us into 2009 and beyond. Read More

Guest Editor's Note Ross McCracken

Fragile planet Read More

Authors

Kate Dourian heads Platts Middle East office in Dubai covering energy news and developments in the Persian Gulf states, including Iran, Iraq and other Arabic-speaking countries. Also a member of the OPEC reporting team, she is a fluent Arabic and French speaker. She received a degree in English literature and mass communication from the American University of Beirut. Her job experience includes three years with the Associated Press in Beirut (1980-83) and then Reuters in Lebanon, Egypt, Morocco, Cyprus and London (1984-2000). Read More

Stress-Testing the Downside 1. Changing World — IEA oil demand growth forecasts for 2008.

The unimaginable has already happened on the upside to crude oil prices, and with recession now looming in the OECD, it is time to stress-test the downside. One factor is that the relative cost of climate change rises as the price of oil falls, and consumers' ability and willingness to pay is clearly lower during a recession. Is survival rather than sustainability about to become the new business creed? Read More

Diesel Dominance and Demand Destruction 1. NWE diesel as % of Dated Brent.

Although it has received little attention, structural changes in demand for diesel and gasoline — rather than speculation, geopolitics or the dollar — may have played a major role in this year's spectacular rise, and then fall, in crude prices. John Kingston peeks under the hood of the world oil market and determines that, if so, those pressures are dissipating. Read More

Sustainable Strategies for the Future

The future of the hydrocarbon economy is in doubt and with it the business models to which it gave birth. Risk and uncertainty are nothing new to the energy world, but never before has the challenge been so fundamental. The response is to create sustainable businesses that can deliver a new energy future. The starting point is to recognize just how much the world is changing. Read More

Greenhouse Gases: The US Compliance Challenge 1. Availability and cost of generating technologies.

Cap and trade schemes have a strong record on SO2 abatement in the US. However, similar schemes to limit greenhouse gas emissions will be much more challenging. Platts analysis of the Warner/Lieberman proposals on GHGs is that a carbon-light generation portfolio would cost 2.4 times as much as a natural gas portfolio, and even then lead to a stabilization of emissions after 2014 rather than sustained cuts. Read More

Europe's Utilities Face Double Whammy 1. Major power projects* under construction in 2008 (MW).

European utility strategy has in recent years been characterized by supremely confident M&A activity. This has been in sharp contrast to their timidity when it comes to core power plant investments. A narrow focus on gas and wind risks both shrinking margins and a loss of diversity. Read More

Petchems Hit by 'Perfect Storm' 1. European steam cracker margins recover.

The petrochemical industry is caught in a vice; high feedstock prices on the one hand, and slowing demand on the other. To compound its difficulties huge amounts of new capacity are coming on-stream in the Middle East and Asia. The five-year outlook is one of declining margins, low levels of asset utilization and industry consolidation. Read More

Renewables: No Longer on the Margins 1. Installed Geothermal Capacity, 1950-2007, with projection for 2010.

As renewable energy moves from the margins to the mainstream of power production, big changes could be in store for 2009. While project financing could be threatened by the financial crisis, the drivers behind renewables are diverse and the industry could benefit from oil and gas price volatility. Read More

Black Gold: Return of the King 1. Coal prices over the last 5 years.

The coal industry has woken from its slumber and finds itself ill-prepared for the demands being made upon it. Exporters are proving slow to expand their capacities and overcome infrastructural bottlenecks. The financial crisis may cause a hiatus in demand growth, but it will also limit finance for investment. Read More

Pivotal Year for Russia 1. Proven oil & gas reserves (billion barrels boe).

The EU's response to the Georgian conflict has largely been governed by the realpolitik of its dependence on Russian energy supplies. Investors are concerned, but cannot ignore the country's vast reserves and appear resolute in believing that Russia still offers opportunities. However, the real threat to investment may lie in the oil price. Read More

Saudi Arabia: The Guardian of Surplus Oil 1. Global demand growth 2007-09 (thousand b/d).

The willingness of Persian Gulf countries to rebuild surplus capacity in the international oil market is a major factor shaping long-term oil prices. However, only Saudi Arabia appears to have the ability to deliver — should it choose to do so. The countries of the Persian Gulf have in fact become major consumers of energy in their own right and are starting to look ahead to a time when the wells run dry. Read More

Roller Coaster Ride for Gas 1. German and UK gas spot prices versus oil product basket ($/MMBtu).

The evolution of gas-to-gas competition in Europe appears to be taking a step backwards, while LNG plans in the US have been left high and dry by the success of unconventional gas supplies. And, in the meantime, the demand outlook has been derailed by the financial crisis. Read More

New Build Risks and the Nuclear Renaissance 1.

Climate change concerns, gas price volatility and the need for new baseload generation have resulted in a dramatic revival of interest in nuclear power in the last few years. However, a nuclear renaissance must still overcome many hurdles, including safety and cost issues, a lack of skilled labor and project management inexperience. In addition, regulatory risk is high, owing to an untested licensing process and new technologies. Read More

Speculation and the Missing Link 1. Distribution of long open interest in NYMEX WTI crude contract, including futures, options and spreads (%).

Efforts to tighten regulatory control over 'excessive speculation' stalled in August, and were then swamped by the ongoing banking crisis, not to mention the November presidential elections. But just as the financial meltdown promises far-reaching banking reform, it may also feed Main Street America's suspicion of big business and commodity trading in general. Read More

China Faces Growing Pains 1. China accounts for the largest share of marginal global demand.

China's rapid development has pulled millions out of poverty and brought it to the threshold of being a developed nation in a time span of just 20 years. It accounts for a huge share of global energy demand growth and events in China now resound around the world's markets. The pursuit of deregulated markets will continue, but balanced by pragmatism and concern for its social impact. Read More

Oil Price Reshapes the Energy Industry TOP 250 GLOBAL ENERGY COMPANIES

Platts Top 250 Rankings reviewed Read More

2008 Global Energy Leaders

Capgemini is proud to be the principal sponsor of the 2008 Global Energy Awards, and as the energy industry continues to transform itself through the use of technologies, we salute the people and companies leading the way. Read More

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation James T. Hackett, Chairman, President and CEO, Anadarko Petroleum

Anadarko is among the world's largest independent oil and natural gas exploration and production companies, with 2.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) of proved reserves at year-end 2007. Anadarko's uniquely positioned portfolio encompasses premier positions in ten major U.S. onshore resource plays and in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. The company also has production and/or exploration in Algeria, Brazil, Ghana, China and several other countries. Read More

CNX Gas Nicholas J. Deluliis, President and CEO, CNX Gas Corporation

CNX Gas Corporation (NYSE:CXG) is the leading E&P company in the Appalachian Basin. The Pittsburgh-based company expects to produce 74 Bcf in 2008, 85 Bcf in 2009, and 100 Bcf in 2010. CNX Gas can support this production growth by drilling on its extensive acreage position, which just crossed the 4 million acre mark. Proved reserves at December 31, 2007 were 1,343 Bcf, and have grown by about 7 ½% per year over the last five years. Read More

CPS Energy Milton B. Lee, CEO, CPS Energy

CPS Energy of San Antonio is America's largest municipally owned energy company providing both natural gas and electric service. Read More

Detectent Inc. Michael Madrazo, Founder and CEO, Dectectent Inc.

In 2004, Detectent emerged as the pioneer of Customer Intelligence for utility business decision support. The initial focus was on the identification of energy theft through the application of advanced analytics. Detectent's rapid success with this first Customer Intelligence application was predicated upon the fact that they did not simply provide a sophisticated tool; they delivered a solution that enabled customers to recognize new revenue immediately. In only a few years, this employee-owned company has grown to over 50 professionals in the United States and Canada. Detectent's fast-growing customer base already encompasses more than one-third of North America's largest utility companies, as well as many major mid-tier and municipal utilities. Read More

EDF Group Pierre Gadonneix, Group Chairman and CEO, EDF Group

The EDF Group, a leading player in the European energy industry, presents in all areas of the electricity value chain, from generation to trading, and is increasingly active in the gas chain in Europe. A leader in the French electricity market, the Group also has solid positions in the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy. Read More

EMFESZ Ltd. István Góczi, CEO, EMFESZ Ltd.

EMFESZ Ltd. was born of the recent liberalization of the European natural gas trade. The firm was chartered in 2003 upon the opening of the Hungarian market to independent companies. EMFESZ commenced activities in September 2003. Read More

Entergy Corporation J. Wayne Leonard, Chairman and CEO, Entergy Corporation

Entergy Corporation is an integrated energy company engaged primarily in electric power production and retail distribution. The 95-year-old company, headquartered in New Orleans, owns and operates power plants with approximately 30,000 megawatts of electric generating capacity. It is the second largest nuclear generator in the United States, owning 11 reactors and managing a 12th. As a utility, Entergy delivers electricity to 2.7 million customers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas. Read More

Enterprise Products Partners L. P. Michael A. Creel, President and CEO, Enterprise Products Partners L.P.

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE: EPD) is one of the largest publicly traded partnerships and a leading North American provider of midstream energy services to producers and consumers of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and crude oil. The partnership's services include natural gas transportation, gathering, processing and storage; NGL fractionation, transportation, storage, as well as import and export terminaling; crude oil transportation; and offshore platform services. Read More

GDF SUEZ Gérard Mestrallet, Chairman and CEO, GDF SUEZ

One of the leading energy providers in the world, GDF SUEZ is active across the entire energy value chain, in electricity and natural gas, upstream to downstream. It develops its businesses (energy, energy services and environment) around a responsible-growth model which relies on diversified supply sources as well as flexible and highly efficient power generation in order to provide innovative energy solutions to individuals, cities and businesses. Read More

Hydro One Inc. Laura Formusa, President and CEO, Hydro One Inc.

Hydro One delivers electricity safely, reliably and responsibly to homes and businesses across the province of Ontario. Hydro One owns and operates Ontario's 29,000 km high-voltage transmission network that delivers electricity to large industrial customers and municipal utilities and a 123,000 km low-voltage distribution system that serves about 1.3 million end-use customers and smaller municipal utilities in the province. Read More

IBERDROLA Ignacio Galán, Chairman and CEO, IBERDROLA

Iberdrola is a global, publicly listed company, based in Spain, with a 107-year history of contributing to the development of the energy sector, and providing quality and security of supply. Read More

Mansfield Oil Co. Michael F. Mansfield, Sr., CEO, Mansfield Oil Company

Mansfield is an established leader in the petroleum marketing, fuel supply, and convenience store industries. We got our start in 1957 and have enjoyed double digit growth for three decades. Read More

MOL Group Zsolt Hernádi, Chairman and CEO, MOL Group

MOL Group, once a state-owned Hungarian petroleum company, is now a leading independent, international integrated Oil & Gas Group in Central-Eastern Europe fuelled by privatisation, organic growth, internal efficiency improvements and successful acquisitions. The company has operations in Europe, the Middle East, the CIS states and Africa. MOL employs over 15,000 people worldwide. Read More

New Mexico Renewable Energy Transmission Authority Lisa A. Szot, Executive Director, New Mexico Renewable Energy Transmission Authority

RETA was created during New Mexico's 2007 legislative session, its board members were seated by October 2007, and its Executive Director was hired January 2008. Read More

NRG Energy, Inc. David Crane, President and CEO, NRG Energy, Inc.

NRG Energy, Inc. is a Fortune 500 company that owns and operates one of the country's largest and most diverse power generation portfolios. Headquartered in Princeton, NJ, NRG's 48 power plants provide approximately 24,000 megawatts (MW) of generation capacity — enough to power nearly 20 million homes. Read More

Petrobras José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo, CEO, Petrobras

Petrobras is the largest corporation in Brazil and one of the largest in the Americas. According to Platts, Petrobras is recognized as the eighth largest energy company in the world. Founded in 1953, it operates in an integrated manner in the following business segments: Exploration and Production, Downstream (Supply and Distribution), Gas and Energy, Petrochemicals, and Biofuels. The company also has strong international performance, with operations in 27 countries. Read More

PTT Public Company Limited Prasert Bunsumpun, CEO and President, PTT Public Company Limited

PTT Public Company Limited (PTT) is Thailand's premier energy company having shown fast growth, strong financial performance, and distinctive leadership of top management. From a national public-sector energy company, it has grown dramatically over the past few years to become a global corporation. Majority-owned by the government, PTT is a privatized company that serves stakeholders as well as national and community interests. Read More

John E. Bryson of Edison International John E. Bryson, Retired Chairman and CEO, Edison International

John E. Bryson retired as chairman and CEO of Edison International on July 31, 2008, after 18 years in the role. Under Bryson's leadership, Edison International grew into one of the nation's largest electricity providers, firmly establishing the company's position as a leader and innovator in the industry. His focus on renewable and cleaner energy sources, as well as electric vehicle development, set industry standards and strengthened Edison International's reputation as an environmentally responsible energy company. Bryson's leadership and strategic vision have set Edison International on a solid course for continued strong growth. Read More

Shell

Shell is a global group of energy and petrochemical companies. With 104,000 employees in more than 110 countries, we play a key role in helping to meet the world's growing demand for energy in economically, environmentally and socially responsible ways. Read More

Sopogy Darren Kimura, President and CEO, Sopogy

With national headlines that include "Sopogy's MicroCSP™ technologies are the next CFL" and "If large solar farms are the mainframe, Sopogy is making the personal computer," it's easy to get excited about Sopogy, a technology company with a highly efficient and low cost concentrating solar power system. Called MicroCSP™, this highly differentiated approach to solar energy is effective for renewable demand side management and on-site power generation bringing solar solutions to all energy users in a modular, rugged concentrating solar thermal system. Read More

Yello Strom

Almost every child in Germany knows: Electricity is yellow! That's what the Germans have learned from Yello Strom. It hasn't even been ten years since the company was launched in the German energy market, thus changing it irreversibly. Yello gave the Germans competition in the electricity sector. And it did so with a simple message: Energy is yellow! Today Yello is as well known in Germany as Coca Cola is around the world. Read More

R. W. Beck Russ Stepp, President and CEO, R. W. Beck

At R. W. Beck, we are passionate about advancing the business of infrastructure. We do this by delivering industry insight that positively impacts the way our clients think about and do business. Read More

The Global Energy Awards are Ten Years Old

2008 marks the tenth birthday of the Platts Global Energy Awards — ten years in which the Awards have grown in stature, evolved in quality, and come to be recognized by the energy industry at large as the hallmarks of excellence, the prizes everyone wants to win. Read More

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