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Peak Oil is entering the mainstream. A phrase once considered synonymous with “The
End of Oil” – the point at which global oil production reaches its peak – is now a subject
for serious debate. Even if it still prompts some enthusiasts into peculiar flights of fancy.
John Roberts examines the arguments from a recent conference on the topic in Lisbon in May.
What is really important about “peak oil”, as was
demonstrated by this conference, is that some serious people in some very serious
quarters indeed are starting to think about what
happens as and when the world’s oil production reaches
a peak and thus, by definition, starts to decline.
There are, of course, innumerable differences of
definition that still need to be resolved. Some
advocates carefully confine their comments to
“conventional oil”, some use the term “regular oil”,
others consider that arguments about when oil
production might be about to decline should also take
into account the impact of non-conventional oil
resources, such as heavy oil, oil sands and shale oil.
Still others consider that what really needs to be
addressed is the ability to produce liquid fuels to
serve global transportation requirements, and that the
key figure we should study each year is the total
volume of liquid fuels – whether produced from oil,
gas, coal or biomass.
Taking it seriously
But the bottom line is that whereas in the past the
concept of peak oil was all too often taken to be either
the preserve of geologists or a rallying cry for energy
Luddites, it is now a concept to which institutions such
as the US Department of Energy and a number of oil
companies are paying serious attention.
Thus when the Association of Peak Oil (ASPO) held its latest
workshop in Lisbon, there were speakers from a few
oil companies as well as representatives from some
key industrial groups – notably AB Volvo, speaking on
alternative fuels for cars and trucks. However both the
oil majors and governments were conspicuous by their
absence (with the obvious exception of the Industry
Ministry of the host nation, Portugal).
Also absent, and reflecting the fact that the meeting
was a gathering of aficionados of the concept, were the
critics of the Peak Oil movement. So while speaker
after speaker considered when various types of peak
might occur, there was little debate on the core
premise that at some stage – and most speakers
thought this would be in the next few years, if it had
not happened already – global oil production of
whatever kind would peak.
Despite such limitations, the argument that the world
needs not only to consider whether oil production might
soon be entering an era in which production would either
plateau out or start to decline, but also the steps that it
might have to take to mitigate the impacts of such a
development, were addressed by some very shrewd and
respectable participants.
That the ASPO meetings have come a long way in just
four years was highlighted by the presence of Dr
Herman Franssen, the former chief economist with
both the US Department of Energy and the
International Energy Agency (IEA).
Franssen, summing up the conference, told Energy
Economist: “The concept of peak oil is very realistic.
Most people would agree. What we disagree over is the
timing. Peak oil people tend to believe it [the turning
point] will be in five-to-ten years; critics tend to say 15-
to-20 years. For something that takes hundreds of
millions of years to form, whether it be 5-10 or 15-20
years is scarcely the point.
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Created: June 1, 2005
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