Miami (Platts)--1Feb2013/339 pm EST/2039 GMT

While US coal exports are flat, market participants are bulking up terminal capacity in the Gulf Coast and Pacific Northwest to handle seaborne trade that's estimated to double over the next 15 years, a panel of experts said Thursday at the Coaltrans conference in Miami.

Additionally, Ambre Energy's president and CEO, Everett King, said at the conference that he's confident the contentious terminals proposed in the Pacific Northwest will be built, partly based on "a hidden message" from the US Army Corps of Engineers.

The terminals, King said, "can be a reality, albeit it will take longer, be more costly and it will involve more than what anybody anticipated, but it still can get there."

Ambre is working to develop the Gateway Pacific Terminal, also known as Cherry Point, near Bellingham, Washington, which would have annual capacity of 40 million to 45 million short tons.

The company is also working on a separate project, Morrow Pacific, along the Columbia River in Oregon, which includes a barge facility that would take coal by rail and transfer it to barges that would transit down the river to a terminal west of Portland for loading onto seagoing vessels.

The two projects are among five in various stages of planning in the region.

King said a potential stumbling block to the projects is a "programmatic environmental impact statement" proposed by parties in opposition to the terminals that would assess the environmental impact of the whole of the five projects on the region.

But King said that based on preliminary discussions with the corps for the Morrow Pacific project, it's his belief the agency will seek only an environmental review as opposed "to a full-blown EIS."

And while the decision would only affect the proposed barge operations at Boardman, Oregon, King believes it portends well for the entirety of the projects.

"If it's accepted, it's a hidden message," King said. "If the corps wanted to make an EIS, it would have been an easy decision, but the decision they made is appropriate."

King added that the permitting process is long and involved, and that despite loud and motivated community opposition in the region he's confident regulators will issue permits.

King said the company is prioritizing the Morrow Pacific project as it has most of the infrastructure already in place and doesn't face the same community opposition due to the absence of coal trains in metropolitan areas, as would be required to ship coal to the proposed Gateway Pacific terminal.

King also said he feels confident most of the proposed terminals will be built, which would have a significant impact on West Coast capacity.

"It's not far-fetched if all these projects stood up over a period of three to five years, the capacity of all of these new terminals could add 120-140 million tons of capacity, in addition to the Canadian expansions," King said.

In the Gulf Coast, US coal exports were 51 million st in 2012, but announced terminal and midstreaming expansions under way will increase the region's capacity from 67 million st to 120 million st in the coming years, said Cees Van de Mortel, chief operating officer of T. Parker Host, the Norfolk, Virginia-based shipping company.

Van de Mortel said additional terminal expansion projects still in conceptual stages could add another 40 million st of capacity to the Gulf Coast, which includes terminals in New Orleans; Houston; Mobile, Alabama; and Corpus Christi, Texas.

"The export market is slow, but the outlook for steam coal exports are very good, with seaborne demand likely to double over the next 15 years," Van de Mortel said, adding that producers in the Powder River and Illinois basins would be the primary beneficiaries.

Regarding the Panama Canal expansion, King and Van de Mortel said it's unknown what effect it will have on the seaborne coal trade. While it will shorten the sail time to Asia, which is a primary market for PRB and IB steam coal, canal fees might negate the perceived gain.

The expanded canal, which is expected to double traffic when it opens in 2015, will be able to handle ship sizes up to the so-called "Baby Cape" range.

Capesize vessels, however, will still not be able to transit the canal.

"The jury is still out as to what that means for us and the commodity market," King said. "Potentially, commodity exports will find logistic and time management benefits, and it could open more East Coast opportunities for met coal, but the canal would be nearly as competitive as the Pacific Northwest route."

--Andrew Moore, andrew_moore@platts.com --Edited by Jason Lindquist, jason_lindquist@platts.com