New York (Platts)--8Nov2011/457 pm EST/2157 GMT

Differing from some of his utility CEO colleagues, Duke Energy Chairman, President and CEO Jim Rogers said Tuesday that growth in power demand may have stopped, as price increases loom.

"My view of the future is a steep increase in prices, versus the past 50 years when real prices declined. It's an open question what demand growth will be. A compelling case could be made it could be in the flat zone," he said during a joint presentation with Progress Energy at the Edison Electric Institute Financial Conference in Orlando, Florida. Presentations are also available online.

Rogers' take on growth is different from that of American Electric Power CEO Mike Morris and Wisconsin Energy CEO Gale Klappa, who both said Monday they see long-term demand growth at about 50% to 60% of the rate of growth in the US gross domestic product.

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Rogers based his predictions on his expectation that economic growth will be "anemic ... I do not see the manufacturing base coming back. Our economy is becoming less energy intensive, by 3% each year. Distributed generation and solar will increasingly play a role."

New technologies that enable usage reductions and appliance efficiency standards will also play a growing role, he continued.

"[Meanwhile] we're raising rates in tough economic times. In some sense, it's like we're back in the 1970s," Rogers said.

That will lead to growing consumer and regulatory pushback against rate hikes, he predicted. Utilities will have to offset that with better regulatory relations, based on operational excellence and good customer relations, he added.

"The regulatory model will start to change. Decoupling is a half-step towards formula rates, which are the real answer. That will smooth out the increases that are coming. At the end of the day, changing that regulatory model will be key to earning allowed returns in a timely way."

Now in his 23rd year as a utility CEO, Rogers noted that "This is probably my last opportunity to present at the EEI Financial Conference."

Once the planned acquisition of Progress Energy closes, he is to become executive chairman of the larger Duke, advising CEO Bill Johnson on strategic matters and serving as lead spokesman on energy policy.

Introducing Johnson, he said: "I'm the largest individual shareholder in the industry. I want him to get that dividend up."

Rogers predicted more deals, leading to perhaps 25 power companies within 10 years, about half the current number of investor-owned power or power and gas utility companies.

"This is my third deal. I wish I was going to be around for the next 20 years to finish it off ... I do think more [deals] will come in time for the new Duke," he said.

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