Tokyo (Platts)--10Dec2012/444 am EST/944 GMT

Japan's crude and fuel oil requirement for thermal power generation is estimated to rise to about 568,000 b/d over January-March 2013, hitting a peak of more than 600,000 b/d during peak winter demand season, industry sources and analysts said on Monday.

Local suppliers, however, have secured basic requirements sought by the 10 major power utilities over January-March through term and spot contracts, industry sources said.

Japan's winter power demand season normally runs from December to March.

The estimates compiled by Platts are based on complete absence of nuclear power. None of the shut nuclear plants in the country is expected to be allowed to restart during the winter power demand season.

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Japan's estimated crude and fuel oil demand for power generation over January-March 2013 is down 5% from 601,000 b/d a year ago, according to Platts calculations, using data compiled by the Federation of Electric Power Companies.

Industry sources attributed the fall in Japan's demand for crude and fuel oil for electricity generation to enhanced efforts to save power.

Of the total oil demand over January-March,, fuel oil is expected to come in at around 323,000 b/d, industry sources said. This is up 4% from a year ago, Platts calculations showed.

Fuel oil demand from Tokyo Electric Power Company over January-March is expected to hit around 153,000 b/d, industry sources said. Tepco's demand will account for roughly 47% of the total fuel oil demand over the three-month period, industry sources added.

Japan's crude oil demand for power generation is expected to come in at around 245,000 b/d over January-March. This is down 16% from a year ago, the Platts calculations showed.

Combined crude oil purchases from Tepco and Kansai Electric is expected to be about 166,000 b/d, about 68% of the total demand for power generation over January-March, according to industry sources.

Tepco has said it expects its crude and fuel oil consumption for power generation to be about 191,000 b/d for fiscal 2012-13, while Kansai Electric expects its consumption to be about 119,000 b/d.

Currently, only two of Japan's 50 nuclear reactors are in operation -- they belong to Kansai Electric and are located at Ooi -- just 2.32 GW out of a total capacity of 46.15 GW, which in turn accounts for 20% of the total installed power generation capacity of 225.667 GW.

Nine of Kansai Electric's nuclear reactors are shut, leaving it with just 24% of nuclear capacity from a total of 9.768 GW across 11 units.

It remains unclear when any of Japan's power utilities can restart their nuclear reactors. They are expected to remain offline for the foreseeable future amid political uncertainty over who will have the final say on any decision to restart.

--Takeo Kumagai, takeo_kumagai@platts.com
--Edited by E Shailaja Nair, shailaja_nair@platts.com

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