London (Platts)--1Feb2013/818 am EST/1318 GMT

Day-ahead baseload for Monday delivery fell below the price for Friday power as wind generation is expected to rise at the beginning of next week to displace more expensive gas-fired power generation amid subdued demand, market sources said.

On the OTC market, day-ahead baseload fell from Thursday's close of GBP48/MWh to GBP47/MWh while peakload power lost over GBP2 on day to change hands at GBP54.40/MWh Friday morning.

Peak daily power demand on Monday will be only slightly higher than typically subdued Friday levels at 51.5 GW, in part due to milder-than-average temperature forecasts.

In addition to lower demand, wind generation is expected to surge, offsetting expected lower nuclear generation, to cap costly gas-fired output and lower the cost of power.

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"For early next week wind generation looks strong and the spot has fallen correspondingly this morning, holding at under GBP47/MWh," a market source said.

At midday, wind generation was pegged at just 1.2 GW (or 2.8% of the generation mix), far below the all-time record set earlier this week at just shy of 5 GW. As a result gas-fired power was seen stronger at 14.8 GW (or 32.2%) while nuclear remained steady at 8.3 GW (or 18.8%).

Coal-fired power remains the dominant power source at 18.8 GW, or 40.9% of the energy mix.

EDF Energy's Dungeness B-22 nuclear unit is expected to come offline Friday, with Heysham 1-2 set to follow on Monday as return to colder temperatures sets in. However, these outages will do little to dent Monday's surplus margins, which stand as the highest forecast for week 6 at just below 10 GW.

Temperatures in London on Monday are expected to be 2 degrees Celsius above the seasonal average of 3 - 9 degrees C but will turn colder over the rest of the week, CustomWeather data shows.

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