Washington (Platts)--6Nov2012/505 pm EST/2205 GMT
The spot market price of uranium is now below $41/lb U3O8, according to price publishers TradeTech and Ux Consulting. And given continued bearish sentiment in the market, some analysts are not ruling out the possibility that the spot price could fall $40/lb before the end of the year. UxC said that the price has not been $40/lb since March 2006. TradeTech on Friday lowered its weekly spot price to $40.75/lb, down $2.25/lb from its October 26 price. Most of the decline occurred around October 31, TradeTech said, "driven by an increase in the supply" and weaker demand. "Sellers hoping to place material were faced with accepting lower prices well into the first and second quarters of 2013 to conclude transactions," it said. TradeTech's daily price Monday also was $40.75/lb. UxC on Monday cut its weekly spot price to $40.75/lb, down $1.75 from October 29. UxC said the questions now facing the market are whether the $40/lb support level will be broken and if it holds, what type of rebound in price might the market expect to see. UxC's broker average price on Monday was $40.69/lb, down 30 cents from Friday. The BAP bid-offer spread Monday was $40-$41.38/lb. The BAP is based on the price information from Evolution Markets and Armajaro Securities. The Platts NuclearFuel price range for week was $39.50-$43/lb U3O8. TradeTech last week lowered its monthly long-term U3O8 price to $59/lb, down $2 from its September 30 price. UxC kept its monthly long-term price at $60/lb. Market analysts and price publishers often have slightly different definitions of spot and long-term deliveries, but spot-market deliveries typically occur within about three to four months (but can sometimes stretch out to 12 months); long-term deliveries are multi-year deliveries that typically start 18-24 months in the future (but can sometimes start as soon as 13 months out). TradeTech last week cuts its monthly mid-term price to $45/lb U3O8, down from its September 30 mid-term price of $50.25/lb. TradeTech defines this mid-term price as applying to deliveries that begin immediately beyond the 12-month spot delivery window and that occur within one to two years from that point either as stand-alone agreements or as part of a long-term contract.--Michael Knapik, newsdesk@platts.com --Edited by Jeff Barber, jeff_barber@platts.com