EIA ANALYSIS: US oil demand turns positive year-on-year

New York (Platts)--2Sep2009/448 pm EDT/2048 GMT


Total US oil demand on a four-week moving average ending August 28 turned positive year-on-year, the first such occurrence in months, according to data released Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration. EIA reported total US oil demand at 19.292 million b/d, up 10,000 b/d. However, that four-week moving average comparison includes preliminary and revised statistics. In addition, year-on-year comparisons are less glaring as they were earlier in 2009 since last September was the month that the global economy was on the precipice of a complete collapse, sending oil demand on a downward spiral. But, comparing the four-week moving averages of just the preliminary weekly data, at 19.292 million b/d, US oil demand was down 1 million b/d year-on-year, a depreciation of 4.93%. Demand for jet and residual fuel oils were still down year-on-year, as was that for distillate. Implied demand for gasoline, propane and propylene and the "other oils" category were up year-on-year on the four-week moving average. But week-over-week, implied demand for gasoline and middle distillates picked-up. Gasoline demand jumped 370,000 b/d to 9.478 million b/d as product moved through the distribution system ahead of the Labor Day weekend. Gasoline demand tapers off following the end of peak driving season. The jump in gasoline demand and a 224,000 b/d drop in imports to 878,000 b/d resulted in a 2.969 million barrel draw in gasoline stocks. At 205.085 million barrels, US gasoline stocks were still 7.772 million barrels above the five-year average and 10.681 million barrels above year-ago levels, more than ample cushions at the end of driving season. Gasoline stocks have decreased a cumulative 10.306 million barrels over the past six weeks, half the rate of decline seen in 2008 when inventories finished peak driving season below 195 million barrels. Conversely, stocks of middle distillates rose 1.17 million barrels with the entire increase concentrated in diesel. Stocks of middle distillates were 30.643 million barrels above the five-year average and 31.851 million barrels above year-ago levels with another month of inventory-building to go before demand ramps up for heating oil and the harvest seasons. Week-over-week, implied demand for middle distillates edged up 87,000 b/d to 3.497 million b/d, a still unimpressive level of demand, but one reflecting a lack of industrial usage. Refiner demand for crude barrels climbed 468,000 b/d to 14.951 million b/d, the highest level in nearly two months. Gross inputs jumped over 15 million b/d, the first time throughputs have been above that level in six weeks, increasing 516,000 b/d to 15.377 million b/d. As a result of higher throughputs, which were concentrated along the Gulf Coast, product output was higher across the board as refiners cashed in on more attractive margins. The jump in crude inputs was enough to offset an increase of 351,000 b/d in imports to 9.576 million b/d. Of the 351,000 b/d net increase, 539,000 b/d was along the Gulf Coast while imports fell on the Atlantic Coast and in the Midwest, suggesting floating storage was brought on land as the front of the NYMEX crude curve narrowed. Crude stocks edged down 372,000 barrels to 343.388 million barrels. US commercial crude stocks are 30.436 million barrels above the five-year average and 39.526 million barrels above year-ago levels, ample cushions as refiners head into fall maintenance season. --Linda Rafield, linda_rafield@platts.com Similar stories appear in Platts Oilgram News. See more information at http://www.platts.com/Products.aspx?xmlFile=oilgramnews.xml