European spot aluminium premiums edge up, focus on next year

London (Platts)--12Nov2010/559 am EST/1059 GMT


      

Physical aluminium premiums edged higher in Europe this week despite a lukewarm spot business, as some market participants rushed to cover themselves for the rest of the year and sellers raised their offers, sources told Platts. European premiums for duty-paid aluminium edged up $5 to $195-205/mt from $190-205/mt over the London Metal Exchange cash price, in-warehouse Rotterdam, while the duty-unpaid aluminium premium rose to $125-135/mt from $120-130/mt, same basis. Based on Thursday's LME cash settlement price of $2,446/mt, the 3% import duty on primary aluminium into the EU would amount to $73/mt. It is good demand that is driving the premiums up, according to one European trader. "People are consuming a lot. We're equally busy with the spot business and for the next year. We conclude five trades every day," he said, pointing to spot premiums at $195-205/mt. "The aluminium industry is sailing perfectly I would say. Demand is there, consumption is clear," a central European trader said. With aluminium inventories running low at the end of the year, sellers can afford to ask for more. "I don't have so much metal. Small inventories left are going at high numbers," one European producer said. "We have a lot of inquiries exceeding our capabilities." The source sold standard ingot at $205/mt plus the LME cash, in-warehouse Rotterdam this week. People have depleted their inventories over the year, said a second European trader. "So everybody is short of metal for next year. People have less metal over the year," he said. The source has managed to sell ingot at $220-230/mt, in-warehouse Rotterdam, but quoted premiums at $200/mt. The first European trader said $230/mt is possible when somebody urgently needs an ingot, but "I don't think $220-230 is a good reflection." But as the end of the year approaches, there has been some small, hand-to-mouth buying, according to a UK-based trader, who has been offering standard ingot on the spot market at $210/mt, in-warehouse Rotterdam. Some sellers nevertheless have had a pretty quiet time. "Premiums have been pretty flat for a long time. It's been pretty quiet," said a third European trader who has spent time picking up cheap bits in unusual locations and selling them at higher premiums. Some buyers no longer need to buy for this year. "We're rather fully booked [on the spot market]," said one aluminium ingot buyer, who only needs to "hunt around" for a higher-purity material. NEXT YEAR'S PREMIUMS CLOSE TO SPOT LEVELS Most market sources continued to focus on concluding long-term business for next year, with premiums near the spot levels. "We're in sort of a beauty contest at the moment," the ingot buyer said. People are looking at the best terms, delivery schedules, quality of the product. "For the first quarter, we have concluded some contracts already and we're still looking," the source said. But high premiums continue to discourage buyers and a lot of people are waiting to book metal. "That is why we don't go beyond the first quarter," the source said. A second ingot consumer said: "The level is really crazy. I've never seen these numbers. I'm cautious to do business." "People are scared to book. They're going to get burnt," said the first trader, pointing out that premiums should firm even further next year. The central European trader bought a small amount of aluminium for the first half of 2011 at around $190/mt, in-warehouse Rotterdam, but he declined material at $200/mt. Various producers have offered aluminium for next year at $195/mt, the trader said. "We insist on firm numbers," a second European producer said, quoting offer premiums at $130-135/mt for duty-unpaid material. "We are quite bullish as far as Rotterdam premiums are concerned," he said. Platts raised the A7E duty-unpaid aluminium premium assessment from $120-130/mt to $125-135/mt plus LME cash, in-warehouse Rotterdam. The duty-unpaid A7E, FOB St. Petersburg premium stood at $100-115/mt plus LME cash. --Agnieszka Troszkiewicz, a_troszkiewicz@platts.com Similar stories appear in Metals Week See more information at http://www.platts.com/Products/metalsweek/