ASIA COKING COAL: Bids and offers stay apart ahead of Q2 negotiations

Singapore (Platts)--25Feb2013/823 am EST/1323 GMT


Spot coking coal prices in Asia started the week quietly, as a wide gap between bids and offers stifled spot liquidity, market participants reported.

Several miners acknowledged that they did not want to offer spot while Chinese demand spot demand was weak, especially before the April-June 2013 quarterly negotiations, which are due to take place in the next two weeks.

On the buy-side, steelmakers and traders in China were reluctant to bid, citing uncertainty surrounding the government's attitude towards the real-estate market, and declining coke prices.

"Suddenly everyone become cautious and less active. I don't think a deal could take place today, unless at very low price," a Beijing-based trader said.

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"The market doesn't look very good compared to before Chinese New Year," one seller said Monday. "The inventories at mills look healthy, and some [large steelmakers] won't import until late March."

"It's all very quiet," a Brisbane-based miner added. "Everyone's either not got a lot of coal, or is not offering."

In spite all of this, most Chinese traders believed that the recent price decline would be short-term, as the country's steel output was reportedly stable.

Platts assessed premium low-vol hard coking coal $0.50/mt lower Monday at $170/mt FOB Australia, and standard-quality HCC unchanged at $154.50/mt FOB.

No new deals were heard concluded, and indicative bids and offers remained far apart, perhaps reflective of a lack of desperation on either side.

On PCI also, indicative bids received Monday were lower than last Friday. One Shandong-based trader, for example, would only consider Russian 10% volatile matter and 10% ash at $151-152/mt CFR China, citing lower expectations for near-term prices.

"Steel mills still have sufficient HCC and PCI," he said, without needing to buy spot.

For Russian 12% VM and 12% ash coal, the source would see $142-143/mt CFR China as reasonable.

For semi-hard materials, two buy-side Indian sources and a trader agreed that Australian 45-50% CSR, mid-vol but low fluidity material could be tradable at $135-140/mt FOB.

Meanwhile, contract negotiations for the second quarter of 2013 were not yet underway, market sources in Japan and Australia said. These were expected to start after an industry event in Hawaii this week.

Price-wise, a Japanese mill source reiterated he was aiming for a rollover of prices from the $165/mt achieved in Q1 2013, saying that fundamentals hadn't changed.

Speaking about pricing mechanisms, he said his preference was for the existing quarterly pricing. Regarding index usage, the mill source said he didn't have confidence that spot indices could represent supply and demand dynamics.

--Julien Hall, julien_hall@platts.com
--Edwin Yeo, edwin_yeo@platts.com
--Helena Sheng, helena_sheng@platts.com
--Edited by James Leech, james_leech@platts.com