London (Platts)--26Nov2012/803 am EST/1303 GMT
The recent softening of global metal and mineral commodity prices is merely a bump in the road and the so-called commodity super cycle is set to resume, albeit at a more subdued rate, Australia-based commodities investor group RFC Ambrian said in a research note Monday. "There is no doubt that commodity markets have fallen back from peak levels, but we believe we are still well and truly in the super cycle and that the recent decline in demand is just a bump in the road," it said. Growth would continue in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and this would drive demand for commodities in the future, it added. RFC Ambrian said consumption levels of key commodities remained well above levels seen 10 years ago and that although supply is catching up with demand, faster depletion of resources means that there is an ongoing need for investment in exploration and development of resources. Article continues below...Request a free trial of Metals DailyPlatts Metals Daily offers prices, news and analysis for the aluminum, copper and molybdenum value chains. It contains hundreds of metals prices across base, minor, light and precious metals assessed by editors globally. This detailed report will help you monitor global events and quickly spot opportunities or potential pitfalls as well as bring you aluminum and copper price and news coverage. Daily prices and news for molybdenum are also covered to deliver critical insights.
The recent softening of global metal and mineral commodity prices is merely a bump in the road and the so-called commodity super cycle is set to resume, albeit at a more subdued rate, Australia-based commodities investor group RFC Ambrian said in a research note Monday. "There is no doubt that commodity markets have fallen back from peak levels, but we believe we are still well and truly in the super cycle and that the recent decline in demand is just a bump in the road," it said. Growth would continue in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and this would drive demand for commodities in the future, it added. RFC Ambrian said consumption levels of key commodities remained well above levels seen 10 years ago and that although supply is catching up with demand, faster depletion of resources means that there is an ongoing need for investment in exploration and development of resources.
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Platts Metals Daily offers prices, news and analysis for the aluminum, copper and molybdenum value chains. It contains hundreds of metals prices across base, minor, light and precious metals assessed by editors globally. This detailed report will help you monitor global events and quickly spot opportunities or potential pitfalls as well as bring you aluminum and copper price and news coverage. Daily prices and news for molybdenum are also covered to deliver critical insights.
It added that there would be a long time before levels of urbanization and individual prosperity in the BRIC nations reached those in the US. "The enormous populations of China and India suggest the impact of higher per capita incomes will be very significant," it said. In the longer term, RFC Ambrian sees the potential for a significant price increase for zinc. "Even with very modest growth in demand, say 1-3% per year, supply will struggle to keep up. A number of large zinc mines (around 200,000 mt/year) are due to finish mining within the next three years, including Brunswick, Lisheen and Perseverance," it said. The group noted that new projects also looked uncertain and that due to a lack of investment in the zinc sector very few operations were due to come on-stream. "As a result, we see a supply gap opening up over the coming years and we see the potential for a price spike from 2015 onwards," RFC Ambrian said. Three-months zinc on LMEselect was trading at $1,985/mt at 1212 GMT Monday.--Greg Smart, greg_smart@platts.com--Edited by Jeremy Lovell, jeremy_lovell@platts.com
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