Global oil demand in 2013 revised down 220,000 b/d, to 90.11 mil b/d: EIA
New York (Platts)--10Apr2012/1250 pm EDT/1650 GMT
The US Energy Information Administration Tuesday lowered its forecast
for global oil demand in 2012 to 88.81 million b/d, down 150,000 b/d from a
month earlier, according to its April Short-Term Energy Outlook.
The revision by EIA puts year-on-year oil demand growth in 2012 at
890,000 million b/d.
The global oil demand estimate for 2011 was revised up by 20,000 b/d, to
87.92 million b/d, according to EIA.
Growth in global oil consumption is expected to accelerate over the next
two years, EIA said, with consumption reaching 90.11 million b/d in 2013,
after a 220,000 b/d downward revision by EIA.
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Total liquids supply is expected to increase by 1.81 million b/d,
850,000 b/d from countries outside of OPEC and 970,000 b/d of crude oil and
non-crude liquids from OPEC-member countries.
The larger increase in total supply compared with consumption growth is
misleading, however, EIA noted, as the 2011 balance between supply and
consumption resulted in a supply shortfall of 770,000 b/d that contributed to
a decline in world inventories, including the coordinated drawdown in
government-held stocks in countries belonging to the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development last summer.
Consequently, the change in the supply-demand balance for 2012 reflects
the increase in supply over last year that is forecast to maintain stocks
near current levels.
Several uncertainties could push oil prices higher or lower than
projected, EIA said, as a number of non-OPEC countries are currently
undergoing supply disruptions.
"Oil prices could be higher than projected in this Outlook if their
recoveries from the disruptions are slower than forecast, additional
disruptions occur, or supply growth is lower than expected," EIA noted.
In addition, uncertainty and market anxiety regarding the effects of the
impending European Union embargo and other sanctions targeting Iranian crude
oil imports could further bolster oil prices.
On the demand side, if the pace of global economic growth fails to
recover in countries belonging to the OECD, or if economic growth slows in
non-OECD countries, prices could be lower, EIA said.
Meanwhile, EIA revised non-OPEC crude oil supply higher by 210,000 b/d
in 2012 to 52.67 million b/d and by a further 300,000 b/d in 2013 to 53.52
million b/d. For 2011, non-OPEC supply was revised up 50,000 b/d to 51.83
million b/d, EIA data showed.
The largest area of non-OPEC growth will be North America, where
production increases by 560,000 b/d and 180,000 b/d in 2012 and 2013,
respectively, will result from continued production growth from US onshore
shale plays and Canadian oil sands.
In Brazil, output is to rise annually by an average of 130,000 b/d over
the next two years, with increased output from its offshore, presalt oil
Production will also rise in China and Colombia over the next two years,
while production is expected to decline in Russia, Mexico, and the North Sea,
Civil conflict in Yemen and Syria continues to compromise a considerable
portion of each country's oil output, EIA added.
Yemen's production is already impaired by an ongoing outage to the Marib
pipeline and EIA projects that Yemen's production will average 180,000 b/d in
2012, and 200,000 b/d in 2013, down from the country's pre-crisis production
level of around 260,000 b/d.
Due to heightened unrest, EIA expects Syria to produce 260,000 b/d in
2012 and 360,000 b/d in 2013, still below the country's pre-crisis production
level of 400,000 b/d.
--Alison Ciaccio, firstname.lastname@example.org