New York (Platts)--17Dec2012/409 pm EST/2109 GMT

US commercial crude stocks are expected to show a 2.3 million-barrel decline for the reporting week ended December 14, according to a Platts survey of analysts conducted Monday.

At 372.6 million barrels, as of the reporting week ended December 7, US crude stocks are amply supplied, sitting 13.75% above the five-year average of US Energy Information Administration data. The expected draw is about half of what the week-on-week change in the EIA five-year average suggests is typical for this time of year.

US crude stocks have declined a cumulative 3.3 million barrels since the reporting week ended November 9, with draws seen in four of the last five weeks. Oil stocks typically fall around 13.5 million barrels between the weeks ended November 23 and December 28, according to Tom Pawlicki, director of market research at EOX Live. Pawlicki expects US crude stocks to draw by 1 million barrels.

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"[H]olders of oil typically try to liquidate more expensive oil purchases made later in the year and report the less expensive oil acquired earlier," Pawlicki said. "[I]t's been difficult to determine whether oil holders are in fact liquidating, since stocks gained [843,000 barrels] last week."

Pawlicki also said elevated crude production could stem the magnitude of the declines as suggested by the EIA five-year average. At 6.852 million b/d, US crude production is at its highest level since late-December 1993.

Carl Larry, president at Oil Outlooks and Opinions, expects US Atlantic Coast refineries likely increased runs last week, contributing to a draw. "We should also see our [crude oil]imports ease off as they tend to do during this season," Larry said.

The Platts survey of analysts shows US refinery utilization should remain flat.

In products, analysts surveyed expect a build of 2 million barrels for US gasoline stocks, and 1.5 million barrels for US distillate stocks.

US gasoline stocks have been climbing recently, jumping a cumulative 16.73 million barrels over the past three reporting weeks. At 217.12 million barrels for the most recent reporting period (ended December 7), US gasoline stocks were 2.83% above the EIA five-year average, a level not seen since March. A week-on-week change in the EIA five-year average suggests US gasoline stocks could increase by just over 1 million barrels.

Likewise, US distillate stocks have been boosted recently, up over 6 million barrels over the prior two reporting weeks. But at 118.055 million barrels, US distillate stocks remain tight, sitting 18.73% below the EIA five-year average. The five-year average suggests US distillate stocks are likely to remain flat.

"Additional difficulty in predicting the products and utilization numbers this week will be the impact of BP's Whiting refinery problems," Pawlicki said. "The facility shut its largest crude unit in November, however, refinery inputs have increased since that time."

The American Petroleum Institute releases its weekly report Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT), while the EIA will release its weekly data Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT).

--James Bambino, james_bambino@platts.com --Edited by Katharine Fraser, katharine_fraser@platts.com

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