OECD oil stocks fall by counter-seasonal 5.5 million barrels in June: IEA
London (Platts)--10Aug2012/647 am EDT/1047 GMT
The International Energy Agency lowered Friday its estimates of world
oil demand in 2012 and 2013 after major revisions to its baseline data and
weaker assumptions for economic growth next year.
In its latest monthly oil report, the IEA lowered its forecast for
global oil demand in 2012 by 250,000 b/d to average 89.6 million b/d and cut
its estimate for 2013 by 400,000 b/d to 90.5 million b/d.
The agency said its oil demand growth estimates for 2012 were unaffected
by the data adjustment, however, and maintained its prediction of 0.9% demand
growth this year. For 2013, the IEA estimated oil demand growth of 0.8%,
which also reflects a 0.2 percentage point reduction of assumed GDP growth
for the year.
"A relatively subdued global oil demand forecast persists for both 2012
and 2013, resulting from the weak economic backdrop," the IEA said. "Demand
growth will likely fall in 2013...as the stronger macroeconomic outlook is
offset by, among other reasons, the resumption of nuclear capacity in Japan
reducing prospective oil needs from the power sector."
Explaining its adjustment to baseline demand estimates, the IEA said the
change affects mostly historical data from the FSU, China and Middle East
after fully incorporating 2010 data for non-OECD countries.
The IEA said the shifting of Chile, Israel, Slovenia and Estonia into
the OECD category, from the non-OECD, also affected its estimates this month.
Together, these countries account for around 700,000 b/d of oil demand.
For June, the IEA said it also revised down its Chinese and US demand
figures from last month's report, with the world's two dominant consumers
using 570,000 b/d and 105,000 b/d less respectively.
On supply, the IEA said OPEC crude output for July is estimated at 31.39
million b/d, a drop of 70,000 b/d from a downward-revised June total. Lower
output from Iran, Angola and Libya counteracted increases from Iraq, UAE and
Qatar, and were behind the fall this month.
Global oil supply grew by 300,000 b/d month-on-month in July to 90.7
million b/d, with non-OPEC liquids production accounting for 60% of the
increase, the IEA said.
On stocks, the IEA said OECD industry oil inventories fell
counter-seasonally by 5.5 million barrels to 2.68 billion barrels in June,
representing a deficit of 19.2 million barrels to the five-year average.
OECD forward demand cover fell by 0.2 days to stand at 57.8 days, 0.2
days below May's downwardly revised level.
July preliminary data indicate a 10 million barrel increase in OECD
industry inventories, the IEA said, compared with a 21.7 million barrel
five-year average build for the month.
--Robert Perkins, firstname.lastname@example.org
--Edited by James Leech, email@example.com