Dubai (Platts)--20Apr2011/751 am EDT/1151 GMT

Saudi Arabia expects its oil production to hold steady at an average 8.7 million b/d to 2015, rising to 10.8 million b/d by 2030 and leaving the kingdom with 1.5 million b/d of spare production capacity, a senior Saudi oil official said in a research paper released Wednesday.

Majed Al Moneef, Saudi Arabia's OPEC governor, said in the paper published on the Arab Energy Club website that Saudi output averaged 8.2 million b/d in 2010.

Saudi Arabia's oil production in the last two decades averaged 8.3 million b/d, representing 32% of OPEC's total production during a period that saw sharp fluctuations in production from Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria, he wrote.

The kingdom's share of production fell in recent years to 28% as Iraqi output resumed after the end of the US-led invasion of March 2003, he said, adding that other OPEC members also saw their share cut as a result in the last five years.

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"If this trend continues in the next 20 years without any sharp fluctuations in production from other producing states, the kingdom's crude oil output in 2015 and 2030 could rise to 8.7 million b/d and 10.8 million b/d respectively, compared with an average 8.2 million b/d in 2010," he said.

"This means that during the next five years, the kingdom's crude oil production will not rise but will start to increase after 2015 at an annual rate of around 1.5 percent to 2030," Moneef said.

Given that the kingdom has total production capacity of 12.5 million b/d, of which 72% is currently being exploited, actual production to end 2030 will be maintained at this assumed level within this available capacity, he added.

"This will be enough to meet anticipated production [to satisfy both export and local demand requirements] while maintaining through this period spare capacity that will reach 1.7 million b/d by 2030, within the kingdom's declared aim of maintaining spare capacity of 1.5-2 million b/d," Moneef said.

The figures cited imply that Saudi Arabia does not intend to raise its production capacity beyond the current level.

The anticipated 1.5% annual increase in production by OPEC and Saudi Arabia will meet global oil demand as well as local demand for oil and refined products, he said. Demand growth in OPEC has been growing at a rate of 3% and in Saudi Arabia at 5% a year in the past 20 years, Moneef said.

"If this rate of growth continues in line with economic and population growth as well as demand for power generation, water and transport, then a larger proportion of production will be directed gradually toward meeting domestic demand, which is rising at a higher rate than expected average output growth, which will reduce the volume available for export," Moneef said.

"This means that the value of exports [and revenues] will will depend primarily on global oil prices and not on the volume of production and exports. This is not a new development but will become clearer over the next two decades," he added.

--Kate Dourian, kate_dourian@platts.com