IEA sees OPEC output rising by more than 10 million b/d by 2035
London (Platts)--12Nov2012/752 am EST/1252 GMT
The International Energy Agency sees OPEC oil production growing
significantly in the long term, boosted by the large reserves held by its
In its latest annual World Oil Outlook, released Monday, the IEA said it
saw OPEC output rising by more than 10 million b/d from current levels until
"Oil production in OPEC countries as a group is poised to grow
significantly over the longer term reflecting their large resource base and
relatively low finding and development costs, though short-term market
management policies will probably continue to constrain the rate of expansion
of supply," the IEA said.
"The bulk of the increases in OPEC production comes from the Middle
East, predominantly Iraq, though all OPEC countries in this region see an
increase in output over the projection period," it said.
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The IEA sees total OPEC output rising to 37.3 million b/d in 2015 from
35.7 million b/d last year and to 38.5 million b/d in 2020.
By 2025 OPEC production is set to reach 40.4 million b/d before rising
to 43 million b/d in 2030 and 46.5 million b/d in 2035.
Output from one of OPEC's key members, Iran, is set to tumble in the
short term because of the impact of international sanctions against the
Islamic Republic, the IEA said.
"The prospects for production in Iran remain clouded by uncertainty over
the impact of international sanctions and the country's upstream investment
policies," the IEA said.
From a base level of 4.2 million b/d in 2011, the IEA now sees OPEC
output falling by 1 million b/d in 2015 to 3.2 million b/d.
It then sees it recovering to 3.3 million b/d in 2020, 3.6 million b/d
in 2025, 4 million b/d in 2030 and 4.5 million b/d in 2035.
"The country has the resources to support a big increase in production,
but a lack of capital and technical expertise have held back investment and
led to stagnating output," the IEA said.
"The loss of revenue and even more constrained access to technology and
capital is expected to quickly turn this reduced production into a reduced
capacity as well. The country's production will take several years to
recover," it said.
The IEA also expects slow production growth in another OPEC member
"The outlook for oil production in Kuwait remains uncertain, given
continuing political opposition to allowing foreign companies with the
requisite expertise to develop the country's heavy oil resources," the IEA
"The country aims to boost overall crude production capacity to 4
million b/d by 2020 from 2.7 million b/d currently, but achieving that will
be difficult without the expensive involvement of international companies,"
It sees Kuwaiti output staying steady at 2.7 million-2.8 million b/d by
2030 and only then rising in 2035 to 3.1 million b/d.
--Margaret McQuaile, email@example.com
--Edited by Jonathan Dart, firstname.lastname@example.org