The Other Side of the BTU Tipping Point

June 2–4, 2014 • The Houstonian • Houston, Texas

    
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Introduction to the North American Energy Market: Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and NGLs

Day One — Monday, June 2, 2014

07:15 Networking Breakfast and Introduction

08:30 Natural Gas, Crude, and NGLs Market Structures
Rick Allen, Manager, Energy Analysis, Bentek Energy

  • Pricing and basis differentials — Geographic dynamics
  • Commodity lifecycle
  • The continued shift to liquids/crude

09:15 Networking & Refreshment Break

09:30 Production — Crude, NGL, and Natural Gas
Ryan Smith, Energy Analyst, Bentek Energy
Diana Oswald, Manager, Energy Analyst, Bentek Energy
Marissa Anderson, Manager, Energy Analyst, Bentek Energy

  • Key basin production trends and emerging plays
  • How effi ciencies have changed production
  • Wet versus dry plays and why it matters
  • How IRRs and shrink impact production
  • NGL supply estimates and methodology

12:00 Networking Luncheon

13:15 The State of Transportation and Storage — Gas, Crude, and NGLs
Suzanne Minter, Manager, Energy Analysis, Bentek Energy
Jeff Moore, Energy Analyst, Bentek Energy

  • Bringing supply to the market
  • Transportation infrastructure — Flows, capacity and interconnects
  • Nomination cycles and changes
  • Storage

14:15 Processing, Refi ning, and Demand — Gas, Crude and NGLs
Bob Yu, Energy Analyst, Bentek Energy
Maria Mejia, NGL Analyst, Bentek Energy

  • Demand sources review
  • Importance of petrochemicals and motor gasoline

15:15 Networking & Refreshment Break

15:45 Market-Implied Volatility Surfaces
Mark Callahan, Manager, Commodity Risk Solutions, Platts

  • Volatility, what volatility?
  • Approaches to estimating future volatility — The good, the bad and the ugly
  • Platts’ approach to implied volatility
  • Case study

16:15 No Shortage of Price Volatility to Start 2014
Patrick Badgley, Associate Editor, Platts

  • Signifi cant price fluctuations despite record production, high storage levels
  • Extreme 2013–14 winter leads to record demand, prices
  • Hefty storage pulls give boost to summer forwards — Will it last?
  • Pipeline additions came onboard; volatility remained in key consuming regions. Will 2014 additions limit the spikes?

17:00 Networking Reception

18:00 Close of Day One


Analytics Features and Breakout Sessions

MAIN CONFERENCE — Day Two — Tuesday, June 3, 2014

07:15 Networking Breakfast and Introduction

08:30 Bentek Analytics Feature #1 — North American Natural Gas Outlook: Balancing Supply Push and Demand Pull in the Market
Jack Weixel, Director, Energy Analysis, Bentek Energy

  • Supply projections through 2019
  • Demand — What is reality?
  • Infrastructure requirements in the long-term
  • Price impacts and 5-year outlook

09:30 Bentek Analytics Feature #2 — The BTU Tipping Point and Why History Has Taught Us Nothing… Except That We Can’t Ignore It
Justin Carlson, Senior Manager, Energy Analysis, Bentek Energy

  • Big wins and battle scars in natural gas
  • Is there an elephant in the room? Short-term gas outlook
  • Long-term, the realm of possibilities

10:30 Networking & Refreshment Break

11:00 Global Economic Outlook — Which Economies Can Gobble up Surging North American Energy Supplies?
Henry Fukuchi, Associate Director, Ratings and Analytics, Standard & Poor’s

  • GDP projections as proxy for the growth of variety of markets:
    • US and Canada
    • Latin America
    • Europe
    • Asia

11:45 Networking Luncheon

13:15 Breakout Sessions (see table at end of agenda)

17:00 Networking Reception

18:00 Close of Day Two


MAIN CONFERENCE — Day Three — Wednesday, June 4, 2014

07:15 Networking Breakfast and Introduction

08:30 Surging US Commodity Exports — The Impact on the Global Commodities Marketplace
Dave Ernsberger, Global Editorial Director, Oil, Platts

  • How US refined oil product exports have transformed the global market
  • What easing restrictions on crude exports could mean for global crude prices
  • Where demand for US oil and NGLs will come from in the years ahead

09:15 The Other Side of the BTU Tipping Point — The Impact to Price
Tony Scott, Manager, Energy Analysis, Bentek Energy

  • Demand investments surge — What will happen to price relationships?
  • Exports, exports, exports — Who wants North American energy?
  • WTI to Brent or WTI to Henry — Which arb will close first?

10:00 Networking & Refreshment Break

10:30 The Global Market Impact of Increased US Petrochemical Production
Jim Foster, Senior Editor, Analytics, Platts

  • Strategic shifts by petrochemical producers
  • A review of announced cracker projects
  • International trade fl ows — Changes in store

11:15 Current Energy Headlines Discussion
Listen in as Platts news editors and Bentek analytics experts link BENPOSIUM 2014 session fi ndings to the latest energy headlines.
Moderator: Bill Loveless, Editorial Director, US Energy Policy and Host, “Platts Energy Week” TV, Platts
Jack Weixel, Director, Energy Analysis, Bentek Energy
John Kingston, Global Director, News, Platts
Mark Davidson, Editorial Director, US Gas News, Platts
Javier Diaz, Senior Analyst, Bentek Energy

12:00 Networking Luncheon

Keynote Address: Peter Tertzakian, Chief Energy Economist and Managing Director,
ARC Financial Corp.

13:15 Breakout Sessions (see table at end of agenda)

17:00 Networking Reception

18:00 Close of Conference


BENPOSIUM 2014 Breakout Sessions
Tracks 1–3 are featured on the afternoons of Days 2 & 3

TRACK ONE: Natural Gas Outlook Track

13:15 – 14:00 North American Natural Gas Demand
Tony Sweet, Senior Energy Analyst, Bentek Energy
Bob Yu, Energy Analyst, Bentek Energy

  • Is the sky the limit?
  • Are structural changes in ResComm starting to appear?
  • Low prices creating opportunities for industrial markets
  • Creating opportunity for lower burn with looming EPA regulations and fuel competition

14:00 – 14:45 Regional — Northeast/Midwest/Midcontinent
Anne Swedberg, Senior Energy Analyst, Bentek Energy

  • Son of a Beast — Marcellus and Utica fl oodgates
  • The LNG backstop and potential for price spikes
  • Power demand constraints and opportunities
  • Infrastructure and expansions overview
  • Northeast downstream demand prospects
  • Competing wet gas supply
  • REX turnaround?

14:45 Break

15:15 – 16:00 Regional — Southeast and Texas
Rick Notarianni, Energy Analyst, Bentek Energy

  • Mexico and the US, partners in an energy revolution
  • Impact of changing natural gas flows on markets and supply in the US and Mexico
  • Flow reversals — Backhaul from the Northeast to the Southeast out of the Marcellus
  • Power burn analysis in the Southeast
  • Gas/electric coordination issues

16:00 – 17:00 Regional — Northwest/Southwest, California and Canada
Luke Jackson, Energy Analyst, Bentek Energy

  • California dreamin’ — The new premium market
  • Mexico’s insatiable appetite
  • Shale gas — A white whale for the West? Emerging pipeline capacity constraints and opportunities
  • SoCal — The new Algonquin?
  • Storage value with a twist
  • Ethane rejection and West production


TRACK TWO: NGLs/Petrochemical Track

13:15 – 14:00 North American NGLs Part 1: Supply — Where Will All the Liquids Come From?
Jennifer Van Dinter, Manager, Energy Analysis, Bentek Energy

  • Market Call — North American NGLs supply forecast methodology
  • US NGL outlook through 2019
  • Is there enough infrastructure to handle the wave of liquids coming from shale?
  • Is that infrastructure in the right location?

14:00 – 14:45 North American NGLs Part 2: Demand — Where Will All these Liquids Go?
Maria Mejia, NGL Analyst, Bentek Energy

  • Market Call — North American NGLs Demand Methodology
  • US demand outlook through 2019
  • How much will be consumed domestically?
  • What will be exported and to where?
  • Does the world really need all of these NGLs?

14:45 Break

15:15 – 16:00 Downstream Products — Olefi ns and Aromatics
Kevin Allen, Managing Editor, Platts
Bernardo Fallas, Editor, Platts

  • Aromatics
    • supply and price instability
    • market overview — benzene, xylenes, and toluene
  • Olefins
    • ethylene makers see green
    • implications for “the other” olefi ns
    • ethylene, propylene, and butadiene overviews

16:00 – 17:00 Global LNG — Markets, Pricing, and Competitive Analysis
Javier Díaz, Senior Energy Analyst, LNG, Bentek Energy

  • North American export forecasts and competitive analysis
  • Effect of LNG exports on Henry Hub
  • Potential savings for Asian buyers
  • Supply/demand evolution
  • Evolution of spot trade
  • Pricing outlook — Oil linkage vs. Henry Hub pricing, the spot market. Can shale gas break oil linked prices?


TRACK THREE: Shale Crude Track

13:15 – 14:00 North American Oil Production — How High Can We Go?
Catherine Bernardo, Senior Energy Analyst, Bentek Energy
Nicole Leonard, Energy Analyst, Bentek Energy

  • Rigs driving efficiencies
  • Well productivity in the Eagle Ford, Permian, and Bakken
  • Canadian production propelling heavy oil
  • Will Mexican production investment change the dynamic?

14:00 – 14:45 North American Oil Infrastructure — Trains, Barges, and Pipelines, Oh My!
Erika Coombs, Energy Analyst, Bentek Energy

  • Pipeline infrastructure connecting markets from Canada to the Gulf Coast
  • Rail capacity critical to balancing supply with demand
  • Dock capacity flooding gulf with Eagle Ford — Will the East Coast be next?

14:45 Break

15:15 – 16:00 North American Crude — How Will it Balance?
Kathryn Miller, Manager, Bentek Energy

  • Surge in light, intermediate, and heavy production — Can refiners handle it all?
  • Will refinery expansions and splitters balance the light market?
  • Can refiners switch light sour for light sweet fast enough?
  • Exports on the horizon?

16:00 – 17:00 Future of Refi ned Products Exports
Jeff Mower, Editor In-Chief, Platts
Jim Mitchell, Director, Product Management, Platts

  • Trends affecting North American refi ned products exports
  • What countries can drive US exports?
  • Can Latin America’s demand for diesel continue?
  • Latin American refi nery projects update




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