IMF shaves oil price forecasts to $100.09/b in 2013, $95.36 in 2014

London (Platts)--9Jul2013/932 am EDT/1332 GMT


The International Monetary Fund has lowered its oil price forecasts to $100.09/barrel in 2013 and $95.36/b in 2014.

In April, the IMF forecast that oil prices would average $102.60/b this year and fall back to $97.58/b in 2014.

However, in an update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF said on Tuesday that global growth was set to remain subdued at slightly above 3%, the same as in 2012.

"This is less than forecast in the April 2013 World Economic Outlook (WEO), driven to a large extent by appreciably weaker domestic demand and slower growth in several key emerging market economies, as well as by a more protracted recession in the euro area," the IMF said.

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"Downside risks to global growth prospects still dominate: while old risks remain, new risks have emerged, including the possibility of a longer growth slowdown in emerging market economies, especially given risks of lower potential growth, slowing credit, and possibly tighter financial conditions if the anticipated unwinding of monetary policy stimulus in the United States leads to sustained capital flow reversals."

The agency expects world output to grow by 3.1% in 2013, a downward revision from the 3.25% forecast in the April WEO, and by 3.8% in 2014, down from 4% in the April report.

The IMF said the price of oil, which it calculates using a simple average of Brent, Dubai and West Texas Intermediate, had averaged $105.01/b in 2012.

--Margaret McQuaile, margaret.mcquaile@platts.com
--Edited by Alisdair Bowles, alisdair.bowles@platts.com

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