As usual for a Tuesday, energy markets are quiet, waiting for tomorrow's estimates of US oil inventories from the Energy Information Administration (the statistics arm of the Department of Energy).
The latest Platts' analyst survey projects a 200,000 barrel build in crude, 900,000 barrel build in gasoline and 1.4 million barrel build in distillate stocks, as of May 11.
The fact that the markets sit and wait for these admittedly incomplete estimates fascinates us at the Barrel. The EIA itself readily states that the estimates are not based on complete information, as there is not enough time to sift through the reams of data that are submitted.
Instead, the EIA uses a representative sample of the survey submissions, and builds the overall estimates from that smaller data set.
The EIA's Petroleum Supply Monthly report revises the weekly numbers, sometimes by a large margin, but that report comes out two months later.
What is fascinating is that not only are petroleum futures markets waiting with bated breath for the numbers, but the stock market as well. Refiners' stock prices will see a knee-jerk reaction, based on what the report might mean for crack spreads.
The American Petroleum Institute used to be the dominant weekly statistics, but has fallen out of favor as not every company reports to the API, but every company has to report to the EIA.
We guess incomplete and potentially inaccurate, but PROMPT, data, is better than more accurate but backward-looking numbers.
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