Stats day...and moving day?

| No Comments | No TrackBacks

Some musings on a busy Thursday:

--All the news services, including Platts, had stories Thursday about the possibility of changes in the very valuable real estate at 1 North End Avenue in lower Manhattan. In other words, the home of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

All of this is driven by the rapid shift in trading from the floor of the exchange to the Globex screen. CNBC tried for several years to get access to the floor, after being restricted to broadcasting just from the overhead gallery. That access has been granted in recent months, just as the surrounding cacaphony of traders is disappearing.

Platts' story is that the NYMEX and COMEX trading rings, now on different floors, might be consolidated on one floor. A NYMEX spokeswoman denied that such discussions were ongoing.

But it almost doesn't matter. There is little doubt that the NYMEX and COMEX, going forward, are going to need a lot less space. Their building sits right on the Hudson River, steps away from a ferry landing bringing people over from the upscale residential areas of Hoboken and Jersey City, and along a sweeping promenade with a breath-taking view. A marina sits right outside in a small cove. When will the already healthy stock price of the NYMEX fully reflect the possible resale value of that building, if it doesn't already? And does anyone want to take a guess about what an apartment down there might go for? And what are the odds that the name of the residential portion of the building won't be something like Trader's Landing?

--The endless battle over gasoline demand is not likely to end with this week's release of statistics from the Energy Information Administration. Among the key numbers in the report is the implied demand estimate for gasoline, which according to the EIA is up 1.4% more than a year ago. Given that figures on the economic performance of the US showed the country in the first quarter growing at its slowest pace since 2002, it does sort of defy logic a combination of high gasoline prices and weak economic performance could lead to that hefty a jump in demand.

A weekly snapshot could lead to a conclusion of year-on-year growth in excess of 3%. But as the always perceptive Paul Horsnell and Kevin Norrish wrote in their post-stats report, "Gasoline demand grew by some 1.5% Y/Y in Q1, not spectacular but pretty robust. By contrast, using the first estimates from the weekly data provided a misleadingly strong growth rate across Q1 of 3.1%, almost too high to be credible. While gasoline demand was strong enough in Q1, it has not been nearly as strong as the weekly data implies." But clearly, Horsnell and Norrish are not dismissive of the 1.4-1.5% estimate on year-on-year demand growth in gasoline. Others are, so the debate will go on.

--Coals to Newcastle is a long-time expression that can be translated as sending a product to a place that already has lots of that product, e.g., sending coal to the one-time UK coal center of Newcastle. Shipping gasoline to the US Gulf Coast might be considered the same, but when Gulf Coast gasoline reached well in excess of 20 cents more than the benchmark NYMEX price in recent weeks, it attracted a slew of imports. (Platts recorded a differential in excess of 25 cts on May 17, and assessed the market just under that).

According to the IEA report, total gasoline imports into PADD III, which includes the Gulf Coast, reached 284,000 b/d last week. The average since May 2004, when the EIA started breaking out import figures by PADD, is about 81,000 b/d. But the figure is often zero, and excluding the post-Katrina rush of imports, two weeks with imports in excess of 300,000 b/d, in late April and early may of last year, were the only other weekly periods that exceeded last week's haul.

But the spread between NYMEX and conventional Gulf Coast gasoline is now down to about flat -- actually, slightly negative -- and there are shipments problems on the Colonial Pipeline that are likely to back up supplies in that region. Don't expect last week's performance to be repeated.

No TrackBacks

TrackBack URL: http://www.platts.com/mt/mt-tb.cgi/811

Leave a comment

About this Entry

This entry was written by John Kingston and was published on May 31, 2007 4:37 PM ET.

Previous entry: Bleak House in Alaska

Next entry: "Aspirational" goals hardly the stuff of a real climate change program

Find recent content on the main index or look in the archives to find all content.

Twitter Updates

Archives

September 2011

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
        1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30