Help wanted...lots of it

The author is important not just because CERA is well-known and well-respected, but because it has traditionally been one of the most optimistic voices about the industry's ability to continue increasing production over the next several years. And while the brief summary of the report released by CERA doesn't have any output projections, it does say this: "This analysis confirms that engineering and project management personnel are already insufficient to meet 2007 upstream project demand and it forecasts that design and project management availability will be an important factor going forward for development of new oil and gas fields."

The conclusion then is if one of the more optimistic analysis firm is seeing a tightening of people who can make these projects a reality, what must the peak oil theorists be thinking?

Even the CERA summary is fairly precise in laying out numbers on the magnitude of the problems. There are about 55,000 international and regional engineering contractors at present. The problem is that their average age is 51, and more than half are expected to retire by 2015. That's a six percent attrition rate. The rate of new hires next year is expected to be about 2%.

It will rise to 5% by 2010. But that's not enough, as CERA reports there will be a "10-15 percent shortfall of qualified, available staff by 2010 ... (which) will (result in) increased costs and further delays that will have cascading effects in other markets. As the project engineering talent pool continues to shrink and the number of technically difficult projects such as deepwater, heavy oil, or severe climate operations increases, the demand for the remaining highly qualified staff is expected to increase significantly."

The complete release can be found here .