"Dire Predictions - Understanding Global Warming," a guide to the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is likely to infuriate climate skeptics because it is so user friendly that it could become a popular default source for information on what has been called the gravest environmental challenge of the 21st century (among a host of envirnmental challnges).
The book distills the more than 2,000 pages of the three latest IPCC reports, released last year, into 200 lavishly illustrated pages. It offers in broad strokes what the IPCC provides in so much greater detail. But while few casual readers are likely to plow through the densely written, heavily foot-noted IPCC reports, "Dire Predictions" is an easy read.
Although it greatly simplifies (and risks oversimplifying) the IPCC reports, it echoes the IPCC's conclusions that the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere - primarily from burning fossil fuels - is approaching dangerous levels, with the attendant risk of catastrophic climate change.
The book, published by DK Publishing, New York, was written by Michael Mann, associate professor of meteorology and director of the Earth System Science Center, and Lee R. Kump, professor of geosciences, both at Penn State. Mann has also been a lead author and a reviewer on IPCC reports.
"There was a lot of important technical material within the IPCC reports that just really doesn't make it through to the public," Mann said in a telephone interview. The task, Mann said, was to take that information "and boil it down so that the person on the street really can understand the issues and the problems presented by climate change."
Something is inevitably lost "when you leave out details that are important," Mann acknowledged. "You have to gloss over some details that are important scientifically, but which if you really try to discuss you're going to lose your audience. We've done our best to maintain accuracy, while sometimes necessarily simplifying."
"Dire Prediction" includes sections on climate change basics, projections, impacts ,vulnerability and adaptation to climate change and solving global warming. The illustrations and graphics are vivid, and a number of photographs strike an emotional chord (Somalian famine victims - Page 131), underscoring the book's message about the dangers posed by climate change: "It will only make situations like the devastating famine in Somalia worse."
Although scientists acknowledge that uncertainties exists in our knowledge of global warming, "The source of the carbon that has led to the recent buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide isn't one of them," the book states. "No natural source for the CO2 buildup has been identified."
Uncertainty abounds, but scientists "recognize that few things in science can be stated with certainty," the authors write. While scientists are able to make strong conclusions from uncertain results, "Some people express skepticism " in response to this uncertainty, and cite it as an excuse for inaction. "But uncertainty "is a poor excuse for inaction," the book concludes. "With each passing year of inaction, stabilizing earth's climate becomes increasingly difficult."
The book clearly is intended to find its way onto library shelves and into classrooms. "While perfect for people interested in global climate change, it is also a good beginning for an introductory course in climate change for students not majoring in sciences," says a press release accompanying its publication. "College, high and middle school students and most adults would find the book an easy roadmap to understanding the global warming debate."
Climate skeptics/deniers may want to burn it (Mann said he would consider that a badge of honor); others may want it gift-wrapped.
Leave a comment