Careful now, that other Asian giant -- India has begun to stir languorously from its slumber. And when it is fully awakened, the world will be faced with another mammoth energy guzzler, hot on the heels of the US and China.
India, with its population of almost 1.15 billion people, is already the world's fifth largest consumer of energy. It is expected to move up the ladder to third place by 2030, if not earlier. Its demand for oil alone is expected to rise about 2.9% every year for the next 25 years. Its imports will rise disproportionately compared to most other nations, considering that India has only about 0.4 per cent of the world's proven oil reserves. This is a vulnerability India is working hard to overcome -- to ensure supply, it has already signed numerous oil agreements with countries like Libya, Brazil, Colombo, Venezuela, Australia and China largely through ONGC Videsh -- its foreign acquisitions arm for oil investments.
But this is just the tip of the iceberg. India is also struggling hard to meet domestic demand for critical products like fuel oil, gasoil and jet fuel. In July this year, Indian refiners processed a record high 14.308 million mt (3.37 million b/d) of crude, operating at 113.1% of their pro-rated installed capacity, to keep pace with domestic products demand. This is a rise of 12% compared to July 2007, and the volumes show no signs of calming down even as the world slips into inflation.
Domestic diesel demand grew by 18% during April-July as industrial users switched to using the highly subsidized fuel for power generators in place of traditional sources such as naphtha and fuel oil. These unsubsidized sources of fuel are now far more expensive, which again begs the debate of whether government fuel subsidies should continue.
Once traditionally met by India's own refiners, this heightened thirst for distillates has meant that 4.14 million mt of diesel is expected to be imported in 2008-09. Of this, 1.267 million mt was already imported in April-July - which looks set to tip the balance higher. And this is just the year 2008.
By 2030, considering that a third of India's population, which is currently below 14 years of age, will be working adults with higher disposable incomes and greater energy needs, India's soaring energy demands will be a force for the world to reckon with.
You have ignored the qty of diesel exported while mentioning that 4.14 MMT will be imported. Due to the duty structure and subsidised diesel being sold by public sector companies, Reliance exported 10 MMT of diesel in the same period. Hence, India is a net exporter and not an net importer. After the New RPL refinery India will export close to 15 MMTPA of diesel.