In the final arduous hours of the UN climate change talks in Bali last year, the US delegation was booed and upbraided for opposing a plan intended to guide future negotiations on an agreement to succeed key provisions of the Kyoto Protocol, which expire in 2012.
"If you are not willing to lead, then get out of the way," a delegate from the Pacific island state of Papua New Guinea scolded the US delegation. Ultimately, the US got out of the way and threw its support behind the so-called Bali Roadmap.
The Bali Roadmap runs through Poznan, Poland, this December, the site of the next climate conference; to Copenhagen in December, 2009 - the self-imposed deadline for reaching a post-Kyoto agreement. The Bush administration, which rejected the Kyoto Protocol and refused to impose mandatory limits on US greenhouse gas emissions, has not always been a popular presence at climate talks. The administration will be at the table again in Poznan, and whether it plays a positive role, or will be viewed as impeding progress towards a new international agreement, remains to be seen.
The next US president will be elected November 4, but not take office until January 20. The new administration will have no official role in Poznan but may send representatives to Poland for sideline discussions. Unlike President George Bush, both Barack Obama and John McCain support cap-and-trade programs --although the devil, as always, is in the details. And it is to the next administration that the international community will be looking for leadership.
"I think the US can really make a difference, " Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the UN International Panel on Climate Change, told reporters last week at a meeting of the Society of Environmental Journalist. "If the US is slow [to act], it certainly isn't going to stop others, but it will affect everybody's [resolve]."
What happened in Bali was both "symbolically and in substance was very revealing," he said. "The US was very isolated. If it remains out of this action it's going to [suffer] a huge loss of prestige and political credibility, and (I would say) market opportunities."
The world "is going to move to a low-carbon economy," and US companies can't afford to offer only high-carbon technologies to their foreign markets, Pachauri said.
In the first 100 days of the next administration, the economy will top the president's agenda, Pachauri acknowledged. But he should also target "the energy sector and how we will attain energy independence and a sustainable energy future. And I think, connected with that, he should talk about climate change" and the dire consequences of not taking action.
The next US president "should lay down a target that by 2015 the US will be reducing its imports of oil to 50% of what it is today," Pachauri said. "That doesn't mean drilling in Alaska or elsewhere, but really bringing about a major transition in the energy sector. If he gives (climate change) an energy dimension and a political rationale, I think we will get support."
"Most people believe (climate change) is a problem that's far away from them and I think that's very bad news," Pachauri said. "In some way or another, we will all be affected."
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