If you list enough potential candidates for Barack Obama's Cabinet, you may get it right

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President-elect Barack Obama's secretary of state could be New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. No, make that Senator Richard Lugar, Republican-Indiana. Sorry, how about Senator John Kerry, Democrat-Massachusetts? Or, possibly it's going to be former Senator Sam Nunn, Democrat-Georgia.

Alright then, maybe it will be Obama's vanquished primary opponent, Senator Hillary Clinton, Democrat-New York, who has just emerged as a possible pick (she met with Obama in Chicago).

The media's quadrennial post-election game of divining a new president's Cabinet (or personnel changes in a reelected president's administration) is in full frenzy. The sources for the names vary. They can be leaked by the Obama transition team; dropped in the ears of reporters by the hopeful candidates themselves or their supporters; or floated by groups promoting one of their own, i.e., labor, Hispanic, women, veterans, African-American.

The names represent trial balloons, lead balloons, non-starters, wishful thinkers, and quite possibly, the real thing. At this point, no one knows for sure who will be selected (probably not even within the Obama transition team). Because it's guess-work, media outlets will list several candidates for each position. That way, they increase the likelihood of having one right pick. Actually, if one of your five listed candidates to be secretary of state is selected, say, you'd be right once and wrong four times.

Here are a few more gleaned from the web:

Energy Secretary: Senator Jeff Bingaman, Democrat-New Mexico; former representative Phil Sharp, Democrat-Indiana (now head of the think tank, Resources for the Future); and California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republican (wouldn't that be an interesting pick).

Interior Secretary: Former Alaskan Governor Tony Knowles, Democrat; Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and ex-Senator Lincoln Chaffee, Republican-Rhode Island.

Environmental Protection Agency Administrator: Mary Nichols, head of the California Air Resources Board and a senior EPA official in the Clinton administration; Representative Ed Markey, Democrat-Massachusetts; and Kathleen McGinty, head of the Counsel on Environmental Quality in the Clinton administration.

Keep in mind these are possible selections, not predictions, so don't bet the house (presuming it's not in foreclosure). Also, because the Obama administration would not want to diminish the newly enlarged Democratic majority in the Senate, a sitting Democratic Senator would probably be picked only if the state's governor is also a Democrat, and could pick a Democratic replacement. Such is the case with Sens. Clinton, Kerry and Bingaman.

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This entry was written by Gerald Karey and was published on November 14, 2008 12:29 PM ET.

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