A look to the upstream future is discouraging

Noting that the oil rig count in the US North America is down by 99 rigs in the last four weeks, or almost 23%, Horsnell goes on to say this:

"With the backdrop of a hail of recent announcements on capital expenditure reductions for both conventional and non-conventional oil, together with the continuing move away from investment in alternative energy, we believe that the sharp fall in industry confidence is likely to have a more lasting effect on the health of the supply-side. Indeed, for that not to represent a severe problem over the course of the following decade, the weakness in global oil demand would have to become fairly prolonged. It tends to be a far longer process to reinstate projects than it is to mothball or cancel them, and the scale of the current industry freeze and confidence loss seems likely to severely affect non-OPEC production. Further, given how much of expenditure in mature areas is directed at trying to contain decline rates, we suspect that those decline rates might now be set for another step up."

We can't add to that. It's too dead-on. And very depressing.