We recently reported in this space and in Platts Oilgram News about the heightened interest in the hydrocarbon resources of the Arctic that are becoming potentially more accessible with the retreat of the of the polar ice under the assault of global warming.
It's been assumed that a great deal of oil and natural gas is beneath floor of the Arctic Ocean. The first-ever comprehensive resource assessment, undertaken by the US Geological Survey, suggests that's a reasonable assumption. The USGS concluded that about 30% of the world's undiscovered gas and 13% of undiscovered oil may be found in the area north of the Arctic Circle, mostly offshore under less than 500 meters of water.
The study, published online May 29 in the journal Science, suggests a greater than 95% chance that the Arctic contains 770 Tcf of gas; a 50% chance that it contains more than 1,547 Tcf; and a 5% chance that it contains as much as 2,990 Tcf.
The assessment suggests a greater than 95% chance that the Arctic contains more than 44 billions of oil; a one in two chance of more than 83 billion barrels; and a 5% chance that as much as 157 billion barrels "could be added from new oil discoveries north of the Arctic Circle."
Although substantial amounts of gas may be found in Alaska, Canada and Greenland, "the undiscovered gas resources are concentrated in Russian territory, and its development would reinforce the preeminent strategic resource position of that country," the study said.
More than 31% of the mean undiscovered Arctic oil is contained in sediments offshore Alaska. New discoveries "could maintain the flow of Alaskan oil for many years to come," the study said. The estimated oil resource "is probably not sufficient to shift the world oil balance," the study said. However, development of the resource would probably be sufficient to "change the economic landscape and way of life of local inhabitants." (Whether for good or ill is an open question, and beyond the ambit of the USGS report).
Caveats are in order: The resource estimates do not include technological or economic risks, "so a substantial fraction of the estimated undiscovered resources might never be produced," the study said. "Development will depend on market conditions, technological innovation and the sizes of undiscovered accumulations."
The researchers used a "probabilistic geology-based methodology" to develop the resource estimates. It involved delineating Arctic sedimentary rocks by age, thickness and structural and tectonic setting, and comparing them with sedimentary rocks elsewhere in the world that shared similar geological properties and were known to contain oil and gas.
Another caveat, then: These first estimates are "in many cases, based on very scant geological information," the study said. [O]ur understanding of Arctic resources will certainly change as more data become available."
It is again an offensive on the pristine areas of the earth, the studies or the news induce respective area governments/companies, but why we need to evaluate such beautiful areas of earth for human aggression and furthering the climate deterioration, when more oil and gas the tendecy will be to spend and use more and also longer period of destruction.
When the world is seriously pursuing for non conventional and renewable energy resources and new inventions, we need to focus all our attention for same.
It is really a shame situation one side we talk about climate change, pollution whereas otherside look for destruction and exploration. This is really just reflecting the atomic situaion or doctrine of the world presently.
Also it is pathetic one way that people again start to face price challenge of crude...
the old adage is being proved, for the posterity(of near term)..that destruction is easy whereas creation is tough and difficult..