The long slide in Mexico goes on

Well, maybe a little commentary. There was some hope that the decline in Mexican output would stabilize itself this year. Mexican officials had given indications to that effect. But today, the state-owned oil company Pemex reported that the country's June crude output was down 11% year-on-year, to 2.519 million b/d.

But here's the more stunning figure: what's happened in two years. In July 2007, Pemex reported crude output of 3.165 million b/d. That's a 20.4% decline in 23 months.

Just imagine the pressure on OPEC if Mexico's decline was a mere 4% or 5%, and Nigeria's output was more toward normal. Platts' Jacinta Moran recently reported that Nigeria's oil production has fallen to 1.48 million b/d after a recent wave of attacks had made further cuts to the country's output. That means the country is down about 50% from its capacity, since an official of Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. had said that 1.5 million b/d of the country's crude production was currently shut, with the Niger Delta crisis accounting for 80% of the losses.