It's a gas, gas, gas...

Of course the rather less exciting (and wholly more likely) explanation is that the term actually arose to differentiate it from "avgas" -- aviation gasoline. Either way, recent developments from the European continent mean that in the near future, the unwary buyer could find that stumping up for mogas could actually land you with a very large quantity of hydrogen.

Stung by the run up in crude values, blamed for many of the world's environmental woes and finding the open road increasingly choked by many other of its kind, to say nothing of being the product of an industry that is finding it ever harder to make money, the car has had a hard time of late.

While European governments have been reluctant to tackle the sheer number of autos on the average road, they have been gleefully quick in tackling emissions through the creative application of various tax incentives.

Now there are moves afoot to attain the absolute holy grail of personal, private transportation--to wean the motor car off fossil fuels altogether.

Arguably one of the things that has stood in the way of progress has been the inability, in a world of private finance initiatives, to find a big enough backer prepared to throw its weight behind one of the myriad of potential alternative approaches to petrol, and see it through to fruition.

Or at least to a point where private investment can take over and embark on the development of engines, supply routes, technology and all the other paraphenalia and logistics it entails.

That stumbling block looks to have been pushed aside with the announcement in mid-September that Germany is again looking to hydrogen as a means of public transport*.

As an alternative power supply it is hydrogen that has got the most people the most animated, as technology has paved the way for a fuel cell that produces electricity from a chemical reaction involving two of the three most abundant chemical elements on earth. And the only waste product is water. You can see the appeal, and California is also among the places already trialing this technology.

But the German government has committed the country to becoming "the market leader for modern drive technologies." To attain this goal, it has pledged a significant expansion of its network of hydrogen filling stations by 2011, and the creation of a nationwide supply by 2015, centered on the northwest port of Hamburg.

By the end of this year, Hamburg will see work begin on the construction of Europe's largest hydrogen filling station. The city is already an established epicenter for radical oil activity, pioneering the move to ultra low sulfur 10ppm road fuels well ahead of the rest of Europe, and also trailblazing the move to ultra low sulfur 50ppm heating oil.

Now the relationship between man and motor (if you'll excuse the distinctly 20th century gendering) has been at the heart of the oil industry since its dawn. The two have grown in tandem to be utterly dependent on each other -- a dependence vividly illustrated over the last 18 months as rampant price increases laid into gasoline demand and drove the price-sensitive US motorist off the road. That hurts European refiners, who export their surplus gasoline across the ocean.  

Adding insult to injury, the ensuing global economic collapse and plunge into recession kicked away the other leg of refining support, slaying Europe's until then insatiable diesel appetite and leaving the future for many refiners looking horribly uncertain.

Meanwhile, oil majors are themselves showing an increasing distaste for both the retail and refining side of road fuels. Shell, for example, is currently mulling plans to divest itself of some of its European refinery operations, while its total number of UK service stations has fallen from nearly 2,000 in 1996, to just over 850 in 2007. Against that background, the search for alternative  to fossil fuels looks like another straw being laid precariously upon the camel's back.

Interesting then to find that when the German Minister for Transportaton announced these plans, senior representatives from the German arms of both Shell and Total stood in support, alongside representatives from the Austrian power and gas company OMV and the head of Mercedes-Benz, Dr. Dieter Zetsche.

And refiners are already handling hydrogen in susbstantial quantities. Steady streams of the stuff is produced from catalytic reformers and is being pumped back into hydrodesulfurization units to act as a catalyst in production of low sulfur fuels. Such was the disparity between diesel and gasoline during much of the first half of 2008 that gasoline production was all about making hydrogen in meet the demand for diesel desulfurization.

However, all is not plain sailing, and a troubling challenge is stemming from across the border. In early October, France revealed its own plans to introduce 4.4 million electrical charging points across the country in the next ten years, and to move 12.5% of the French car fleet, or some 4.5 million vehicles, to some form of electrical power by 2020.

Hydrogen doesn't feature here at all; France, a country that gets over 75% of its domestic electricity supply from nuclear power, is investing its money on the good old fashioned battery. And it has the backing of the French car giant, and former dyed-in-the-wool diesel fan, Renault.

It's no wonder, perhaps, that Total should be among those backing the German initiative.

Momentum is building, as the IEA's October Oil Market Report noted; "the trend in France -- and in other large OECD countries -- seems clear: to transcend the traditional internal combustion engine, a move that will likely have dramatic consequences in terms of oil demand in the medium to long term."

Of the future success of these ventures, only time will tell, but if you're looking to make a killing on trading mogas past 2015, it's definitely buyer beware.

* You remember the Zeppelin, right?