Saudi Arabia has long been a key supplier of crude to the US, holding the top slot through most of the 1990s until increasing volumes from Canada relegated the kingdom into second and sometimes third place.
But while Saudi Arabia has remained among the top five suppliers to the US, its exports have fallen dramatically this year, and it's not entirely clear why.
Earlier this week, the US Energy Information Administration published official monthly data showing that crude imports from Saudi Arabia fell to 745,000 b/d in August from 1.137 million b/d in July. That's a month-on-month drop of 392,000 b/d, but compared with August 2008 volumes, the drop is huge -- 788,000 b/d, or a 51.4% year-on-year fall.
The August 2009 volume is the lowest in almost 22 years and puts Saudi Arabia in fifth place behind Nigeria -- not exactly a short-haul supplier and itself an exporter whose volumes have shrunk because of attacks on oil installations in the Niger Delta -- and just ahead of Iraq, which is still struggling to rebuild its oil sector after years of sanctions and war.
On an annual basis, US imports of Saudi crude peaked at 1.726 million b/d in 2003 but stayed at levels of around 1.4-1.5 million b/d over the next few years, averaging 1.5 million b/d in 2008.
On a monthly basis, Saudi crude exports had not been less than 1 million b/d since the late 1980s until earlier this year when they fell to 944,000 b/d in March.
April saw a recovery to 1.021 million b/d but volumes fell again to 996,000 b/d in May and to 902,000 b/d in June before recvoering to 1.137 million b/d in July.
Then came the plunge to 745,000 b/d in August, the lowest volume since December 1987.
So far this year, the EIA data shows, imports of Saudi crude have averaged just 1.022 million b/d, well below the 1.537 million b/d over the first eight months of last year, although that volume puts the kingdom in third place behind Mexico in second place and Canada in first.
A rebound in volumes over the remainder of this year could mean that the earlier blips were little more than an aberration. But what if that volume rebound does not happen? What will this mean for the Saudi-US political relationship which has so much to do with oil?
Meanwhile, it's difficult to offer one single explanation for the volume drops this year. Is it to do with pricing, OPEC quotas or an increasing Saudi focus on Asia, where future demand growth is expected to come from, or maybe a combination of all those things?
great info...just to lend a few thoughts
1.) probably something to do with the differentials...saudi oil is heavy and those margins have been awful for US refining
2.) BHI US oil rig count bottomed at 179 on 6/5...as of last weeks report, that number is up a whopping 84% to 330.
I suspect the relationship between the Saudi Royal family and the Bush family was closer and more lucrative than previously thought. Without a sweeheart, it's hard to have a sweetheart deal.