Recently in Oil fundamentals Category

OPEC's meeting in Vienna March 17 ended as expected, with the cartel maintaining its existing output target of 24.845 million b/d. Oil prices around $80/barrel removed any potential drama from the gathering.

OPEC's 12 ministers will be raking in a few thousand air miles this month as they prepare to gather in Vienna on March 17 for their regular consultations  ahead of the second quarter before heading to the Mexican resort of Cancun for a major confab with major consuming nations and oil executives at the end of March.

It's a hard life for some.

Oil producer club OPEC this week estimated that its 12 members pumped an average 29.356 million b/d in February -- 116,000 b/d higher than the 29.24 million b/d estimated by the International Energy Agency and 46,000 b/d more than the Platts estimate of 29.31 million b/d but 134,000 b/d below the US Energy Information Administration's 29.49 million b/d.

The highest estimate of production from the 11 members bound by quotas -- Iraq does not participate in output agreements -- also came from the EIA, which put the figure at 27.04 million b/d. OPEC's own estimate came in at 26.81 million b/d, Platts's at 26.75 million b/d and the IEA's at 26.7 million b/d.

Cambridge Energy Research Associates sets its big Houston-based annual meeting in three parts: Oil Day, Gas Day, and Power Day (which actually goes into a second day).

Tuesday was oil day. You never would have known it.

The gap between OPEC's official 24.845 million b/d target and what it's actually producing continues to widen. Platts estimates that actual output in January exceeded the target by more than 1.9 million b/d.

OPEC compliance with the 4.2 million b/d of crude crude agreed in late 2008 peaked in March last year, when the 11 members bound by quotas managed to get their combined production down to 25.61 million b/d, within 765,000 b/d of their target.

The outlook for oil demand is becoming increasingly positive, but that is not likely to translate into good news for refiners for several months at least, according to the latest prognosis for world oil markets from the International Energy Agency.

Revising its numbers on the basis of rosier economic projections from the International Monetary Fund, the IEA's latest monthly report released February 11 shows it has raised its estimate of world oil demand in 2010 by 170,000 b/d. The Paris-based agency now expects global oil demand to average 86.5 million b/d in 2010, up 1.8% from last year's estimated 84.94 million b/d.

In the post-financial crisis world, what is the new normal? Without looking back at the trash heap of financial disaster history or forecasting, let's attempt to take the temperature of the current environment.

This past Friday, crude futures trading volumes on both CME and ICE hit record highs and traded in $4-plus ranges with lows under $70/barrel on a day when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 10,000 -- a comfort zone equities seem to have clung to after climbing out of the abyss of the recession's deepest trough. Still, this writer wonders if we're still on a macroeconomic roller coaster. Are markets at times hypersensitive and subject to false trigger, or at other times inured to underlying fundamental realities? Both?

After five consecutive months of significant upward revisions to its 2010 world oil demand estimates, the International Energy Agency bucked the trend January 15 by leaving its projection almost unchanged.

It is not clear yet if the Paris-based agency has made a New Year's resolution to achieve more stability in its forecasts, but the changes contained in its latest monthly oil market report were considerably less dramatic than in recent months.

The International Energy Agency gave its latest forecast for the world oil markets late last week, plotting a more robust outlook for global oil demand.

Reflecting more bullish GDP outlook figures the IMF recently, it's no surprise that the IEA has adjusted its oil demand estimates to reflect the recovering economic climate.

Anyone following recent Platts news feeds like Oilgram News and Global Alert now knows that US oil production is rising again at a fairly significant level and shows signs of holding above the 5 million b/d mark for the next 10 years.

As the journalist responsible for compiling the data that substantiates those results and the interviewing of experts to explain the reasons, however, I have a confession to make here in the blogosphere.