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Factbox: Key oil forecasts from the IEA's World Energy Outlook

London (Platts)--15 Nov 2017 931 am EST/1431 GMT


The International Energy Agency on Tuesday published its latest World Energy Outlook, containing forecasts for energy supply and demand to 2040. Below are some of the key projections for the oil sector.

Key demand forecasts


  • Average annual growth in oil demand to exceed 700,000 b/d from 2016-2040
  • But demand growth to slow down to just over 300,000 b/d from 2025-2040 Oil demand to grow to 104.9 mil b/d in 2040 from 93.9 mil b/d in 2016
  • US to become net oil exporter in the late 2020s: IEA Growing reliance on OPEC once US tight oil plateaus post-2025: IEA
  • US to make up 80% of the net increase in oil supply to 2025
  • US gross crude oil exports would reach around 4 million b/d in 2030 OPEC will increase output by some 14 million b/d between 2016 and 2040
  • Saudi Arabia oil production capacity to grow 1 mil b/d from 2016-2040



KEY SUPPLY FORECASTS (million b/d)
Supply201620252030203520402016-2040
OPEC crude31.9031.4032.1033.3034.903.00
OPEC oil39.6039.8041.6043.9046.707.00
Russia11.3010.509.709.108.60-2.80
Saudi Arabia12.4012.3012.7013.0013.401.00
US12.5016.9016.8015.9014.902.40
Tight oil4.509.009.309.509.204.60
Non-OPEC52.8057.9057.8056.6055.202.40
Iraq4.505.005.606.207.002.50
Iran4.405.105.505.705.901.50

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2017



Share of world supply

IEA crude import price under central scenario

--Eklavya Gupte, eklavya.gupte@spglobal.com
--Edited by Irene Tang, newsdesk@spglobal.com

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