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S&P Global Platts Survey of Analysts Suggests U.S. EIA Data to Show 52-Bcf Build to Natural Gas


WASHINGTON - June 28, 2017


The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report a 52-billion cubic feet (Bcf) injection for the week that ended June 23, according to a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts, the leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets.



Responses to the survey ranged for a build of 44 Bcf to 60 Bcf. The EIA plans to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 am EDT Thursday.

A 52-Bcf injection would be more than the 41-Bcf build reported at this time in 2016 but less than the five-year average, which is a 72-Bcf addition, according to EIA data. It would be the third consecutive injection less than the five-year average.

An injection within analysts’ expectations of 52 Bcf would expand stocks to 2.822 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). It would shrink the current surplus to the five-year average to 187 Bcf while the deficit versus the corresponding week in 2016 would retract to 313 Bcf.

Last week the EIA reported a 61-Bcf build that pushed inventories to 2.770 Tcf, which was 10.5% less than the year-ago inventory of 3.094 Tcf, and 8.1% more than the five-year average of 2.563 Tcf.

While injections in the East and Midwest storage regions were similar to the week prior demand jumped considerably in the rest pushing builds smaller.



“The Pacific, South Central and Mountain regions are expected to drive the total lower 48 injection lower week over week,” said Mitch DeRubis, a quantitative modeling analyst with Platts Analytics, the forecasting and analytics unit of S&P Global Platts. “In the Pacific region, total sample injections measured a net-withdrawal of 0.7 Bcf compared to the previous week’s net-injection of 6.4 Bcf. At an estimated zero net-activity, the region is expected to account for the majority of the week-over-week decline in injection activity.”



The largest decline in net-injection activity is expected to have occurred in Texas, where supply and demand implied activity suggests a market more than 4 Bcf tighter than the previous week.


The weekly analyst survey is conducted by S&P Global Platts’ editorial team, and is published every Wednesday, one day ahead of the 10:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis.

Note: Bentek Energy, which along with Eclipse Energy Group, formed Platts Analytics. Bentek Energy was acquired by Platts in 2011. **In its weekly natural gas report, the EIA divides the U.S. into five storage regions: East, Midwest, South Central, Mountain and Pacific. The full listing of the states that comprise each can be found here.


CONTACT
Kathleen Tanzy, + 1 917 331 4607, kathleen.tanzy@spglobal.com



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