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S&P Global Platts Survey of Analysts Suggests U.S. EIA Data to Show 59-Bcf Build to Natural Gas Stocks


WASHINGTON - July 12, 2017


The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report a 59-billion cubic feet (Bcf) injection for the week that ended July 7, according to a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts, the leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets.



Responses to the survey ranged for a build of 43 Bcf to 64 Bcf. The EIA plans to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 am EDT Thursday.

A 59-Bcf injection would be less than the 61 Bcf build reported at this time in 2016 and the five-year average, which is a 72 Bcf addition, according to EIA data.

An injection within analysts’ expectations of 59 Bcf would expand stocks to 2.947 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). It would shrink the surplus to the five-year average to 174 Bcf and expand the deficit versus the corresponding week in 2016 to 287 Bcf.

Last week the EIA reported a 72 Bcf build that pushed inventories to 2.888 Tcf, which was 9% less than the year-ago inventory of 3.173 Tcf, and 6.9% more than the five-year average of 2.701 Tcf.

Although power burn picked up from the week prior, the holiday might have played a role in dampening some of the demand.



“Week over week, total demand is estimated to have averaged about 2.2 Bcf/d stronger than the previous week, but the week also contained the July 4 holiday on Tuesday, which may have led to a slight overestimation of demand levels,” said Mitch DeRubis, a quantitative modeling analyst with Platts Analytics, a forecasting and analytics unit of S&P Global Platts.



The largest gain in demand was from power burn, which averaged 3.3 Bcf/d stronger than the previous week. The other significant gain in demand came from liquefied natural gas (LNG) feedgas, which averaged 0.5 Bcf/d stronger than the previous week. Feedgas estimates, unlike power burn estimates, should not be subject to typical holiday effects, however, since the volumes are measured rather than modeled.



The weekly analyst survey is conducted by S&P Global Platts’ editorial team, and is published every Wednesday, one day ahead of the 10:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis.

Note: Bentek Energy, which along with Eclipse Energy Group, formed Platts Analytics. Bentek Energy was acquired by Platts in 2011. **In its weekly natural gas report, the EIA divides the U.S. into five storage regions: East, Midwest, South Central, Mountain and Pacific. The full listing of the states that comprise each can be found here.


CONTACT
Kathleen Tanzy, + 1 917 331 4607, kathleen.tanzy@platts.com



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