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S&P Global Platts Survey of Analysts Suggests U.S. EIA Data to Show 14-Bcf Draw to Natural Stocks


WASHINGTON - November 15, 2017


The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report a 14-billion cubic feet (Bcf) withdrawal for the week that ended November 10, according to a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts, the leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets.



Responses to the survey ranged for a pull of 5 Bcf to 19 Bcf. The EIA plans to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 am EST Thursday.

A 14 Bcf withdrawal would be bullish compared to the 34 Bcf injection reported at this time in 2016 as well as the five-year average injection of 12 Bcf.



A draw within analysts’ expectations of 14 Bcf would expand stocks to 3.776 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). It would increase the deficit to the five-year average to 97 Bcf and grow the deficit versus the corresponding week in 2016 to 267 Bcf. It would also represent a steep drop from the injection reported the week prior.

For the week ended November 3 the EIA reported a 15 Bcf build that elevated inventories to 3.790 Tcf, which was 5.5% less than the year-ago inventory of 4.009 Tcf, and 1.8% less than the five-year average of 3.861 Tcf.



Temperatures plummeted across much of the U.S. over the second half of the last storage week, which boosted residential and commercial demand.



“From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, six of eight regions saw average temperatures drop by more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit, with the Northeast region, the largest residential and commercial demand center, seeing a drop of 15.6 degrees from 60.7 to 45.1 degrees,” said Mitch DeRubis, quantitative modeling analyst, S&P Global Platts. “Residential and commercial demand estimates in the region increased by an average 1.1 Bcf per day (/d) compared to the previous week. However, maximum residential and commercial estimates over the course of the week measured nearly 2.3 Bcf/d higher than the previous week’s respective maximum.”



While the East is likely to post an approximate withdrawal of 10 Bcf, smaller draws are expected in the EIA’s Midwest, Mountain and Pacific regions with a marginal injection forecasts for the South Central region.



The weekly analyst survey is conducted by S&P Global Platts’ editorial team, and is published every Wednesday, one day ahead of the 10:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis.



Note: In its weekly natural gas report, the EIA divides the U.S. into five storage regions: East, Midwest, South Central, Mountain and Pacific. The full listing of the states that comprise each can be found here.


CONTACT
Kathleen Tanzy, + 1 917 331 4607, kathleen.tanzy@spglobal.com



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